and its also designed to bailout corporations when times are tough
… that is (partly) where the busts and booms come from.
Yeah I’d like to see a real pullback, 50 percent or more, soon so the market actually becomes investable and I can actually get the money in good rather then praying there are still greater fools buying when I’m 65 and out of income
Plus, I don’t know how you declare a market not “investable”.
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No. I have dry powder, but I’m forced into the market. I just understand that current valuations are dumb and at some point what I have is getting cut in half or worse unless I somehow run real good and we can run out the fiction for 20 more years or so. Obviously would want that correction to happen sooner rather than later as I’m not optimistic about the hope hell valuations stay where they are for a couple decades
Obviously would be real bad initially, but in the long-run we will all be better off
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That’s how you get multiple lost decades of returns. A disaster for millennials if there ever were one. The key thing you have to remember is that we have much more to invest in the future than we have already invested. Getting a good price on future investments is much more important than our current positions holding their value.
The stock market is eventually going to lose 50%+ of its value. It has happened before and it will happen again. It will also bounce back from it. Younger people need this to happen sooner rather than later so we can get a good entry.
Honestly current equities valuations are nothing more than the system keeping its promises to Boomers and Silents at the expense of millenials who have to cash them out to invest for retirement. At a PE of 20 there really isn’t much meat left on the bone. At a PE of 30+ there’s a very decent chance the entire market is -EV. But we buy it because what else are we going to buy?
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Are people really trying to time the market ITT?
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No, but a defensive well diversified portfolio that will be fine if/when the crash comes isn’t a bad idea at these levels. I own a lot of BRK.B lol. That has a decent amount of cash in it.
Well CATV now has lost the majority of its small sized investors from January - maybe incentivizing another hoorah attempt and a possible surge!
Not condoning this. *Catv is just a fouled stock symbol that hasn’t been removed yet and will twitch like a doppler radar while hijacked until its destroyed.
Not really, just acknowledging that a very likely outcome on today’s buys is a negative real return. We are in an asset bubble.
I have friends who have been saying that stuff since the mid-90s. Not saying they’re wrong, the arguments are very compelling. But being out of the market all that time would have been a much bigger disaster than whatever is going to happen when the day of reckoning finally comes.
I’m not out of the market, just feel worse about the market now than I did in 2007.
In 2006 I half-heartedly looked at houses. Making like $85k/year with zero savings - they approved me for $600k with a separate loan for the down payment. They also told me if I couldn’t prove my income I could get a liars loan. And if I wanted more than $600k that would be no problem too.
In 1999 I knew the dotcom stocks were completely out of whack from all reality.
What is the tangible thing this time that is completely out of whack that says doom is imminent? If it’s just general valuations - those have been out of whack forever, right?
I would argue complete bullshit companies like Door Dash having market capitalizations above, oh, General Motors, is an obvious mispricing. But the effect of those firms on the entire stock market is small.
I would argue that the only reason the market hasn’t already corrected in a huge way is money printer go brrrrrrrrr.
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I mean, that’s a rather bold statement and the markets all disagree.
The markets are a function of supply of financial products vs demand for financial products. Capital in flows have to be reinvested and the investor class has been reaping unreasonable returns for a long time. As a result we live in a world with a huge glut of investment capital with nowhere to go but already overvalued financial products.
This is just doomcasting. You could have said the same thing at any point in my life
… And been right. Markets are cyclical. When they are massively down I’ll be preaching how they’ll go back up. I don’t have a crystal ball and I can’t say when the market will tank, only that it inevitably will and we have been going up for a very long time… and the further we go up in valuation and the more time progresses the closer we are to the next big drop.
One thing I’m absolutely sure of is that this is not the time to be getting greedy about allocation and buying mega risky crap with leverage. “Yeah in a crash this thing will be fine” is probably the single most important trait an investment can have this far into an economic cycle. Personally I like BRK in these spots, but I’m pretty sure Riverman disagrees.
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