I mean, it is sure to be the case, in the long run. If you buy a share now and hold it until all the shares are bought back or liquidated then the value you get will be the fair value.
“A big crap shoot based on the public’s opinion” is basically the definition of a market. They are usually pretty efficient but sometimes the results are very obviously stupid.
No one, including people currently holding Gamestop at it’s current price, think that if they hold that stock until it doesn’t exist anymore that they won’t lose a shitton of money. They’re just hoping for either (a) a bigger reddit idiot buying it or (b) someone else (a hedge fund) being forced to buy it at a stupid price due to structural market inefficiencies.
Shorting doesn’t cause the stock price to go up. A well executed short squeeze does. They are rare and hard to do effectively, especially in a legal way. This is part of makes the last week so crazy.
Carl Icahn has like $30 billion and he tried to short squeeze Bill Ackman and Herbalife (an actual scam company with a market cap of like $5 billion), and failed. It almost never happens like this.
I agree with a lot of this. Robinhood users have a good reason to be pissed. But the reason is just about not being provided the service they were promised, not that Robinhood is directly losing them money.
My point about the true value is that the only reason people are sooo pissed off about Robinhood halting buys is because they think it will send the stock price down. If they actually believe the true value was high, this would be a temporary blip and the price would quickly recover once any restrictions were lifted.
They are only so scared and pissed because they think this will deflate the bubble they intentionally created; it’s only really a problem for Robinhood users in the sense that their activity is what created this price in the first place. That’s not how it’s supposed to be, no one should feel bad for them if their obvious market manipulation gets curtailed.
(P.S. It’s not market manipulation to literally say anything in support of positions you have, long or short. It’s manipulation when you lie about your opinions or trade in order to move the market.)
It’s seems that professional investors had to be a key ingredient to this squeeze to the moon. Like they saw what the Redditors were doing and decided to co-opt it?
Three things the Redditors provide that help the professionals. #1 Bagholder safety valve if/when the professionals ever decide to bail or exit #2 public cover/steal from the rich narrative rather than just being accused of blatant manipulation and #3 Least important, the Redditors actual cash to squeeze the price higher
The allowance of short selling is good for market efficiency. In fact the problem here is that it is too hard (expensive) to short sell.
Shorting doesn’t cause prices to rise, in general. Shorting does contribute to accelerating price rises in cases like this, but it’s because of structural things and not the actual shorting itself.
If the people who were short had infinite capital to maintain their positions then there would be no short squeeze.