On the flip side, it’s much harder for you to pack up and leave if things go sideways.
Even then it has to be the right kind of food. Door Dash in Toronto is trying to deliver everything that the restaurant serves for dine in and it’s stupid. Cold soggy fries are a disaster, for example. Plenty of food is terrible when it’s packed in it’s own steamer for 30 minutes and then delivered to you lukewarm.
Except it also doesn’t in markets with those characteristics because I can often walk 5-10 mins and pay $12 for the same meal that costs me $22 through the app.
That could be a legitimate concern for some people in some places. But there are no realistic scenarios where I could earn an income elsewhere but not here, and if I have to flee non-coastal Massachusetts for any other reason there probably isn’t anywhere to flee to.
I think also can work the other way. My favorite Indian restaurant shut down for COVID and upon re-opening seems to have concluded that dine-in is unnecessary. They only do pick up and delivery and are completely closed for dine-in. They still operate out of the same space with a large dining area, but it seems that they have concluded that it is more profitable for them to just eliminate dine-in. I wonder if they will change locations at some point to cut down rent.
I guess they could eventually open up for dine in, but it seems to me like they would have done that already if they felt it was profitable to do so.
digital services is the only category where consumer growth isn’t slowing down. and by itself digital books are eliminating a gigantic slice of industrial printing and delivery. it would shock you how relevant that category js.
i cannot cite it because it was internal research done by my teammates. although you would be take it skeptically due to pro-amazon bias.
How do interest rates doubling result in home prices only declining ~5%? This has been such a weird housing market.
Nobody is selling. If unemployment goes up there will be a housing crash.
Well off people don’t need to sell at something that’s not their price.
Interest rates at 6%+ mean less well off people aren’t incentivized to trade up when their existing rate is half that.
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The housing market crashes when folks can no longer afford to make their silly priced mortgage payments. That takes time and doubling rates isn’t going to instantly cause that to happen.
A lot of chatter at my work from folks wanting to see the market drop down to June lows so they won’t make that “mistake” of not buying at what they feel is a possible bottom. I’d imagine there’s a legit chance we see one of the largest drawdowns from that point if we don’t hold those june levels because the market always seems to find a way to eloquently rek those people that have that type of collective thought that’s strong enough to actually influence the market.
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Not a bad idea as long as they are referring to June 2009.
Those people never buy… they just keep waiting and saying the same thing.
yeah we’re only like 3-4% off the June lows right now, if June was a good time to buy then its still a good time to buy right now, it sounds like they are trying to time the exact bottom and will find another excuse not to buy when we reach June levels again. I made the opposite mistake last year trying to time the top and sold a lot thinking theres no way the market can keep going up, I wont be doing that again
[quote=“Formula72, post:9228, topic:3997, full:true”] I’d imagine there’s a legit chance we see one of the largest drawdowns from that point if we don’t hold those june levels because the market always seems to find a way to eloquently rek those people that have that type of collective thought that’s strong enough to actually influence the market.
[/quote]
i guess im more optimistic than most people here ive been piling in anytime spy goes under 400, 15% above pre-covid levels seems like a pretty good deal to me.
I think the winners out of this are going to be the ones who guess most accurately what unemployment does from here. Folks aren’t going to get blown out of their houses from ARM’s like in 08 so i’d imagine people would be hunkering down and would naturally adjust their spending to the realization that they’re going to be underwater for possibly 10+ years with reduced access to credit - and businesses will have to adjust to that. I’d guess the degree of job loss determines whether we avert or enter a legit recession.
I predict normal people come through relatively fine but leveraged people who own income producing assets will feel real pain. Anyone who owns something with maturing debt, or who has floating rate debt, who bought with maximum leverage is in trouble. But the prices of those assets won’t crater because there are tons of cash rich buyers who have dry powder.