The Supreme Court: RIP Literally Everything

Apparently he does, he’s got hearings scheduled to re-re-re-re-hash the Russia probe starting September 30th, guest starring the Right Honourable James Brien Comey Jr, Esquire

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/wireStory/comey-testify-senate-panel-weeks-election-73076603

It’s been 3 days.

If RBG rose from the dead today and said she was the daughter of God sent back to stop Trumpism, he wouldn’t lose a single vote from evangelicals.

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I like messiahs who don’t get captured

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Not one Dem should even participate in any hearings, at all, just send a note hoping they all die of Covid along with selfies of them flipping birds :fu:

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I’m kind of worried about them doing anything but being civil. The kavanaugh hearings backfired big time and so did impeachment. Both gave trump a big bump. Lots of sexist racist assholes ready to run back to daddy fast if they think the dems are being unfair.

They were running back to daddy no matter what, it’s time to start playing the game by the new rules instead of worrying about what that does to people who were never voting for us anyway. This hearing should make Kavanuagh’s look like a Sunday school class.

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I would expect Trump making the nomination helps the Dems chances in winning the vote. Republicans don’t get motivated by the nomination depending on who wins. Dems are going to be more pissed. And no one outside their crazies and our crazies are even going to think about court packing. On November 3rd maybe 10% of the population would even know what you’re talking about if you said “court packing”. If the election gets decided by the SCOTUS it’s obviously going to be bad.

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They should participate, and if the Rs are running low on time, for the D Senator who pulls the fire alarm during the vote, Unstuck will pay your legal bills.

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PA/MI/WI are all on conservative circuits. They’re actually pretty unlikely to need a fifth vote, although it’s obviously worth some amount of equity as there’s some randomness in which federal judges end up hearing the case, as I understand it.

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I’ve had one person on my FB feed post a long essay about how it’s wrong for Republicans to vote for a new Justice and that everyone should copy and paste it. Another one posted a petition to sign.

I just wanted to laugh, like it will accomplish anything.

And one person responded that she already called Senator Perdue’s office. lol - like I’m going to waste any time calling the Georgia Senators.

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How much time do you spend on here every day?

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If the confirmation hearings are during the lame duck after Biden wins, Harris still gets to ask questions, right? I’m not sure exactly how she should utilize it but it could be an all-time defining moment.

Yes, unless she resigns before that, which I doubt she would do.

For historical president, Biden didn’t resign from the senate until January 15, five days before VP inauguration.

I suppose there is a chance I’m wrong but I’ve long assumed calling individual Congresscritters’ offices is a complete waste of time. The phone is being answered by some unpaid intern, best case a $12/hr “legislative assistant” or whatever, they don’t care.

When a relative of mine worked in Congress people would mail bricks for “the wall.” They were instantly thrown away and nobody ever knew they were sent in the first place.

Well to be perfectly clear, I think this has almost no material impact on the election. But on the margins, I’m confident that the directional bias should be to slightly hurt Republicans.

There rate to be some voters falling into the category of:

  • Non-partisan or lower propensity voter types that are legitimately concerned about the balance of power going too far in one direction
  • People legitimately turned off by the GOP behavior
  • People (perhaps ones that do not like Trump’s behavior) feeling less urgency to vote for Trump because they feel better about their policy agendas being advanced regardless of outcome

Balancing that out are… what? Some person that wasn’t going to vote but now they want to give Trump an atta-boy? Or someone that is just so outraged at talk of packing the court?

Again, I don’t think there are large numbers of people in any of these camps, but I can’t logically get to a place where my hypothesis is that this helps Trump.

Ok but I am speaking strictly about what this does to his expected electoral vote count.

Evidence indicates that losses galvanize and wins breed complacency.

I would say the “own the libs” conservatives are already 100% activated by Trump and well, the politics of trying to own the libs. At the margins the only think I could think of that would really activate a conservative is the “we are finally going to outlaw abortion”. I could see that maybe, perhaps, activating some low information voter who’s mildly against abortion. Other than that, the commercial clause, Chevon defense, immigrant rights, those are the for conservative politics weirdos to worry about.

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“We are finally going to outlaw abortion” is activating, but not for an election that happens after you have already confirmed the justice.

Most the articles I can find say calling is the most effective contact method.

2018 was a blowout for the Dems (+8 or +9). Dem Senators did not run under expectation relative to Dem House reps. It was a bad map.

But there would at least be some logic to saying there is some theoretical voter that was turned off by Dem behavior in the hearings.

The reasoning in the present scenario is basically “something good happened for Republicans so now more people will want to vote for Republicans”.