While I largely agree, the sad truth is it was still worth it to lock up SCOTUS for the next generation (with a good deal of help from RBG).
I think even more important than that is that Biden won by 3 states.
If Biden wins by a 2000 Florida-esque margin in a single state, Iâm fairly certain things turn out differently.
3 Likes
I def agree everything worked out perfectly for them with the court, but even it seems too stupid to deftly use that power like they did with gutting the VRA and Citizens United right after Obama won in 2012. Theyâre going whole hog on hot button issues before the election probably figuring (like Greg Abbott) that if you go so far and people still allow you back in that thereâs nothing you canât get through anymore. Itâs a wild play by the court, but maybe theyâre also trying to make the GOP lose.
So much Grinder up in hereâŚ
Whatâs the difference? Democrats donât play by their rules either. You think Republicans wouldnât have expanded the Supreme court by now, or got rid of the electoral college, etc. if the situation was reversed?
Iâve never seen anyone here say anything like this fwiw.
Trump by any reasonable metric at least had a good chance to be the next president. People are commenting on what happens should Trump win. And I think people are rightfully scared of that outcome. I know I am even though I think Biden winning is more likely. A 30-40% chance of complete chaos and possibly the end of democracy here is terrifying. Trump is dumb but he also will be out for revenge and while the ultimate outcome of that may not be entirely predictable I think itâs fair to say it wonât be good.
1 Like
Will they? Iâm not sure on that at all
They do, though. They keep acting like he controls the power and that he can overturn this election byâŚreasonsâŚ
2022 elections were about creating the mechanisms to overturn the 2024 election, if need be. They failed in every single major way in every single state where they would need that to happen. The next chance if they win in 2024 is 2026, because they wonât have any SOS opportunities in those states again until then. Thatâs the real thing to keep an eye on if 2024 goes in a way I donât expect.
I think in a 2000 type scenerio Trump could overturn the election in a similar way that got Bush elected. I donât think a 2020 outcome could be overturned this time by Trump and Iâve never seen anyone insinuate that but maybe I missed it.
If Trump regains power all bets are off as far as what he will do and the ultimate outcome. Dems are going to look silly for clinging to norms and refusing to do anything with power to try and stop it should that happen.
Itâs very clear to me the Dem strategy is to stick to the norms and hope the GOP normalizes so we get back to some semblance of normal. That is in the face of 40+ years of GOP radicalization. Maybe that is even the best strategy but it is not without significant risk.
I think it is the best strategy. We need for losing an election to not be a crisis. A plan that requires one party Democratic rule ~forever isnât a real plan.
If it couldnât be done in 2020, it canât be done today. He had immense power in 2020 with a lot of people willing to do whatever he wanted. Keep in mind two âcloseâ states just had people indicted in fake electors schemes, so they were ready to go.
There isnât going to be a Bush v. Gore scenario where it comes down to one state and 537 votes that a friendly SOS wouldnât certify. Biden is drawing very live to losing in the Electoral College, with a little bit of the shifting in EVs since the census, but itâs also quite possible he will absolutely obliterate Trump, not because heâs Biden, but because Trump is Trump and abortion is on the ballot with the GOP screaming about what theyâre gonna do if they win.
I agree with your paragraph two but donât agree with your paragraph 3. They donât think the GOP will normalize. Thatâs over. Theyâre just trying to convince voters that democracy means something still. A 2nd term of Trump proves the U.S. public does not give a s*** about democracy at all. Iâd like to believe they still do, but theyâre keeping me on edge every election now.
This is a very bold (and wrong imo) claim.
Itâs unlikely, but that type of scenario is very much in play.
Where?
Odd to see this discussion about trump winning or losing and not accounting for widespread violence. Norms are nice but we are drawing very much live to actual armed insurrection and real widespread violence.
There is basically no chance of a real armed insurrection. There is so little organization and most of the MAGA chuds are cowards who just like to cosplay. Also, this time with Biden in control, heâs going to actually have sufficient police/national guard presence ready to put anything down.
1 Like
Looking more carefully at the state SOSs, Iâll concede it is less likely than I advertised.
(Also looking at the list, I see that John Ashcroftâs nepo baby is SOS of Missouri? FFS.)
1 Like
This assumes a level of basic competence from the Democratic Party that Iâm not confident is there.
Do you think they forgot that a bunch of people stormed the capitol building with the intent to murder them? I think youâre way underestimating how ready people will be for a scenario like this.
The J6 uprising wasnât a secret last time around, everyone knew something was going to happen and yet the Dems still sat on their hands. Theyâre really, really, really stupid.
You really are forgetting some details