And demobilize their base while mobilizing people who only care that they can get an abortion if they need one? Not a chance. They’ll talk about blowing up Roe but they’ll never ever do it. They’ll weaken it to the point where red states can all but ban it, but they won’t actually get rid of it. It’s a load bearing political fight that they need to continue in perpetuity.
This is a pure fantasy.
Save Roe AINEC. Obamacare isn’t even good. If Obamacare is gone and Republicans refuse to replace it the Dems can win the Senate in 2022 and get real healthcare reform passed.
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Neither one is all that great in their current form tbh. Roe has been turned to Swiss cheese already, and Obamacare never did anything to solve the root issues in our healthcare system and just added a fresh coat of paint basically.
Tough questions are interesting.
Are you the kind of person who would go with a utilitarian method?
So, you’re saying we should be rooting for SCOTUS to invalidate Obamacare because the long-term outcome will be much better?
Likely yes.
It’s a tough question but knowable. It’s should be possible to quantify the impacts of ending of policy and then make some kind of utilitarian argument.
I’d be fine with an answer of sketching out what inputs go into the utilitarian equation you would solve.
I’m working so can’t really give you a complete answer right now but I’m a “reduce net suffering” guy at heart.
This is both true and not true. It was true in 1980. But 2 generations have been raised on the derp, they believe it. The boomers who remember it’s all a bullshit story to juice turnout will die off and all that’ll be left is the idiots they indoctrinated. With psychos like alito, kav, & acb on the bench we may be there already.
I hope they fuck up and ban it honestly. That’s the type of unforced massive political error I usually associate with the Dems not the GOP though.
Yes I’m worried about how bad it’ll be for a year or two (really until the next election) after they blow it up… but the political consequences would be immediate and probably fatal for the GOP. God help them if they figured out how to obstruct the federal abortion bill that would get put up after that landslide post Roe election… they’d lose everything that wasn’t up the previous election.
If the GOP wants to shoot themselves in the head (as opposed to the foot which political parties do all the time and survive) I’m all for it. Fire away dumbasses.
The massive unforced error of… giving their voters what they want?
Yup. What would motivate all of those single issue pro life voters to go to the polls if the US wasn’t murdering millions of babies a year?
Abortion being settled by the courts instead of being settled by legislatures is a political event that has cast a pretty long shadow. It changed how Christians as a block voted in a pretty significant way. Undoing Roe would have at least some impact on the evangelical vote… which is why the GOP will never totally get rid of it. Water it down so that they can get credit for blowing it up one small state/local bill at a time? Yes absolutely. Actually totally get rid of it? Yeah definitely not.
Something else that will cause them to vote the exact same way.
But not in the same numbers. Not close. It’s very hard to overestimate how valuable abortion is to the GOP coalition. They absolutely depend on insane levels of turnout from evangelicals.
Seems to me it would be something like
Health effects of loss of ACA as measured on one person
Financial effects of loss of ACA as measured on one person
Psychological effects of loss of ACA
Total number of people who would lose ACA
Health effects of loss of access to abortion
Financial effects of the loss of access
Psychological effects of loss of access
Total number of people that would lose access
Same thing. They’ll vote R so the Dems can’t get a majority for an abortion amendment.
They’ll need to defend the ruling. Sorry, this is some nutty 4D chess here. If Roe gets overturned, Republican voters will be very happy with their team and continue to support them and lots of women will suffer tragic health consequences. There is zero silver lining.
And if they don’t overturn it when they have the power to and told their base they would they risk losing a lot of that base.
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Like how they risk losing their racist base because Trump didn’t actually build that wall?