There will be articles of impeachment filed in the House, I’m 100 percent certain of that. I currently do not know when they will do this. My speculation is that they’ll file/vote by Christmas recess, and that the Senate trial will happen right after they get back (or the vote will happen right after Christmas recess).
I think a lot of timing rests on the McGahn decision, which should be coming down within the next two weeks. I’m expecting McGahn to be completely done by mid-December (as long as SC declines it), and I expect the House will win McGahn. Everyone will have to testify at that point which could change the timeline a lot in relation to dragging things out. If the SC hears it, then they’ll just move forward without a decision on that and I think a pre-Christmas vote is realistic.
I’m not speculating about the Senate, because we just went public (more will certainly come out during this process), but I for sure think it’s higher than zero percent that they will convict.
No matter what, the impeachment will ultimately be a good thing for Dem election possibilities. It shouldn’t have been, based on the run up, but no one’s going to remember Nancy’s dilly dallying when it’s all over. A whole bunch of people are going to be painted very badly by saying that open corruption and crimes are fine as long as it’s a Republican. If he gets away with this, no Dem should ever submit to any investigation. If the public puts those people back in (and/or Trump), they’ve spoken. They want the corruption like a drug injected directly into their veins.