The Presidency of Donald J. Trump: ORANGE Gettin' PEACHed, Nation Goes BANANAS

A few important things… First, we don’t know what Trump’s new approval rating will be. 44% was before this shit really hit the fan. He’s certainly going back down into the high 30’s, maybe worse.

In terms of the Senate Republicans turning on Trump, this isn’t about who wins the presidential election. This is about winning their own re-election. For example, Collins almost has to vote to convict and hope that it makes people forget about her Kavanaugh vote. If she votes for Kavanaugh AND acquits Trump, she’s 100% toast.

For someone in a deep red state, their biggest threat is a primary challenge. But, then again, if their vote on this drives up Democratic turnout and gets them shellacked among independents, they may have to consider that losing the general is a possibility.

All of this calculus changes if they’re running for re-election in 2020 versus 2022 versus 2024. When the vote takes place also matters. If they’re running in 2020, is it too late to get primaried? If this vote is in a week, they have to factor in the primaries. If it’s farther down the line, filing deadlines start to pass in November and December. Three Senate Republicans are out of the woods on a new primary challenger being able to file as of December 21. Three more in January. A ton at the end of March.

In addition, the margin of the vote matters. If the GOP is largely turning on him, then they’ll have cover. They’ll be able to go back to their base and say they had no choice. As a result, I think there is virtually no chance the vote is 67-33 or even 70-30 or 64-36. If it’s not going to get to 67, it’ll be like all Dems (with the possible exception of Manchin), Collins, Gardner, and 2-3 other Republicans voting to convict. If it’s going to get to 67, McConnell will probably try to hold the whole caucus together (or as close as possible) to make it nearly unanimous. So the behind the scenes whip counts may be very close, but the end tally probably won’t be.

If Republicans convict Trump too late for 2020 senators to get primaried you will see third party challenges in the general election, assuming that this doesn’t move the needle on his popularity with Republican voters (and it won’t). I think that the fury from Republican voters will be intense if Trump is removed and many of those third party challenges will be successful.

Danspartan · September 26, 2019, 12:58pm

Everyone with nothing matters posts today are sounding like Trolls if not trumpbots.

It’s over. I doubt he lasts another week. Barr is going to prison. Pence will have no choice but appoint a new AG that will go aggressively all involved.

As bad as the crime was by Trump, the coverup involves at least a dozen folks that will sell the big fish out to save their own necks.

I was young (9) in 1974 but politically aware enough in the aftermath of Dean and MITCHELL.

Koss · September 26, 2019, 1:00pm

I predict this post will not age well. I hope I’m wrong. After reading the whistleblower report, I’m not seeing anything particularly damning. This feels like the other inflection points in his presidency like the Trump tower letter or the big indictments. His approval takes a temporary hit, and this is all forgotten about within 2 weeks.

anon38180840 · September 26, 2019, 1:02pm

I’m reading through this. It’s very bad, both in terms of what happened and the cover up. The White House moved the transcript off the normal storage server or whatever onto a separate one for sensitive/classified materials.

This complaint comes close to establishing blatant quid pro quo, and it’s very clear it’s there - but it’s a road map for who to subpoena to testify to perhaps prove it blatantly.

He’s 100% getting impeached, he’s 100% getting more than 50 votes to convict, and we’re drawing live to removal. There will be hearings in the House, I don’t think this will move rapidly (unless Trump totally shits the bed on his own in the coming days). This will take over a month and under four months to play out in the House - I would set the o/u at like 2.75 months, although the timing with regard to the holidays might push it to the over and it depends when the hearings start.

eyebooger · September 26, 2019, 1:04pm

GODDAMMIT I HAVE WORK TO DO TODAY

oscark · September 26, 2019, 1:04pm

First thing we need is the word for word transcript.

Koss · September 26, 2019, 1:05pm

I’m not buying that “we stored the record in a different folder” as the “we got him” moment. This will get spun as a one off complaint from a biased individual (DEMOCRAT!!!), the White House and its many propaganda news outlets will stick to their talking points and the tide will eventually turn.

anon38180840 · September 26, 2019, 1:06pm

Key difference: you’ve got Trump himself on the phone with the president of Ukraine. We all remember all the details of the Russia scandal, but the lack of that smoking gun pointing right to Trump created layers of detail on top of layers of detail that confused the general public.

This one’s simple. The President of the United States used the power of his office to try to coerce Ukraine into investigating one of his political rivals (plus the DNC). The White House then tried to cover it up. There’s a huge likelihood of quid pro quo, which isn’t even needed for this to be worse than Watergate. Then to top it off, Trump had Giuliani (and possibly Barr) running around, likely circumventing the State Department, as his international crony.

There will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a dozen people with legal exposure on this. At least half of them will be names 99% of Americans had never heard of before today… Thus they have less political capital, less ability to rely on fame, less ability to afford lawyers and less ability to rely on the GOP to protect them. Translation? They’re way more likely to cut deals, testify honestly, and bury this president.

GermanGuy · September 26, 2019, 1:07pm

I am pretty sure Giuliani will have to do a Lewandowski in some congressional hearing.
Can he also claim executive privilege when he is prosecuted under the Logan act?
Does anyone but the Federal government have standing to sue him under the Logan act?
If the answers are Yes to the first and no to the second this might really fizzle out to both-sides-bs.

anon10396289 · September 26, 2019, 1:07pm

I didn’t say nothing matters. I said THIS isn’t going to matter.

Danspartan · September 26, 2019, 1:09pm

Damn. Blocks didn’t carryover from 2p2.

anon10396289 · September 26, 2019, 1:09pm

Jesus christ the Logan Act? You know who has been successfully prosecuted under the Logan Act? Literally no one, ever. No one in the 220 years it has been on the books.

Koss · September 26, 2019, 1:11pm

If Rudy goes in front of congress it will be a kangaroo court of him blathering about, giving non-answers to all the dem questions, possibly with some executive privilege sprinkled in that no one will do anything about. The republicans will profusely apologize for how mean the dems are and then spew pro-Trump propaganda like they are auditioning for a gig on Fox.