Forget compounding and a puny 40% return after all that work, could print money with options.
Yeah, even staying on a basic level if you know in advance you can short it before the tweet, then buy it after. I donāt know enough about what youād do with options and futures, but I would assume that all has more risk since youāre basically betting on a fixed price in advance and if the market is moving too much one way or the other on its own in between tweets you could take an L.
All that work being a few tweets, which granted is a lot for this jackass of a presidentā¦
I donāt know a ton about options, what would you be able to do?
Weāre talking hundreds of % here with options on a single move if done even a little right.
Its effectively like buying/selling on a margin, but with a limited downside.
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I think the market is unable to price in the risk that THIS time is going to be the time he doesnāt get talked down off the ledge, so each time he goes nuts on Twitter it begins to price in that risk. In between rants that risk returns to normal levels, but during thereās a much higher chance that he follows through.
Heās essentially changing the risk factor of trade war escalation in the short term each time this happens, and in between the market is pricing in the long term risk.
And itās all wildly inefficient because heās too unstable to efficiently price in.
Au revior vin francais
Actual quoteā¦ āHow do you know that american wine is better than French wine Mr Trumpā
āBecause Iāve looked at them both and can tellā 
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Counterpoint: He drove three casinos into bankruptcy.
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It wonāt blow my mind if he isnāt doing any of this because heās too stupid. Driving government money to his hotels is much more blatant, and probably much more illegal, but that feels like his speed.
Do you have any links to good articles/websites explaining the basics? This is just borrowing money to invest, right? Any chance it can it be done within a Roth IRA?
Is this worth doing for someone with maybe 5-10K sitting around to invest? Follow up, is it accessible for people with, say, 20-50K to invest during a recession and would the interest rates on the borrowing be linked to the Fed rate? So, letās say I wanted to pump 50K into the market over a period of 12 months if the recession hit next year, would I be able to actually invest like $100K and do it on a margin with $50K in the account and a really low interest rate due to the recession?
Iām actually a little embarrassed I donāt know way more about investing given my intelligence and education levels, financial ability to invest, knowledge of the world/news/politics, and level of ambition. Iām also open to any good book recommendations along these lines. I have been meaning to read Warren Buffettās past shareholder letters for a while and never get around to it.
Yeah, thatās why I said like him or his family and administration. You have to imagine that Ivanka and Jared were like, āHey daddy, let us know in advance next time youāre going to tweet about the trade war!ā
And as I said before, thereās just no way someone like Scavino isnāt trying to profit off of this when he is probably tweeting some of it himself.
Options are a lot more accessible than they probably should be honestly. Itās important to note that these instruments have a lot of rake and go to zero a lot. Selling some of these derivatives opens you up to losing many times your investment as well (they are very much zero sum with big winners and big losers basically).
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Trump isnāt smart enough or disciplined enough to pull off complex market manipulation for profit. Heās more of a āsell planes to Saudi Arabia after they wire me $50 millionā kind of guy.
Counterpoint: His greenmailing schemes in the 90s
Iām fairly sure Trump IS doing market manipulation. Itās pretty obvious and doesnāt require much sophistication. Go over to r/wallstreetbets and tell me that Trump is too dumb to figure it out. Put another way this has a lot in common with fixing sporting events.
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Iāve noticed that when he is triggered into making a price sensitive tweet there sometimes a decent delay between the triggering event and the resulting tweet. Itās not as if he is spending time proof reading before posting.
(Then again he might just be utterly clueless about significant events for hours.)
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Lol @ you guys attributing Trump with the ability to play 4d Chess when the Chinese retaliateā¦
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Options are essentially betting on a stock price to hit or not hit a certain price by a given date. For example if youāre bullish on Apple you could buy a Call Option with a strike (execution) price above market level and if it exceeds that point you can close out your option by buying the shares or selling/closing the contract. The counterparty to the transaction sells a Call and receives the premium you pay which is based on how far out the strike date is, the strike price and the likelihood of the contract conveying (implied volatility). Each contract is equivalent to 100 shares.
A simple example is buying one contract that expires in a month for a stock with a strike price of $100 and a current price of $95. You pay a certain amount for it and if the price never crosses $100 the counter party keeps your premium and the options are worthless. If the price crosses $100 you can execute and buy 100 shares at $100, sell the contract prior to execution or close it out and take profit. So for example if it hits $110 you effectively earn $10/share on 100 shares less the premium you paid for the contract.
Thereās a lot more to it than that and also Put Options which are the opposite and give the buyer the right to sell shares at a certain price.
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Is there a big advantage to this as opposed to buying it at $95 and taking the gains yourself from there? If you buy it for $100 when itās $110 you make 10% minus the premium but youād have made nearly 16% on a straight up trade.
I assume part of it is being able to use the money otherwise during that time periodā¦ and I guess if it drops you only lose the premium you paid. So if you think that there is going to be a ton of volatility, it may be a better investing instrument since you have capped your losses?