https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1164852076930879493
( twitter | raw text )
Lol what
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I want to mainline whatever heās been on lately
The fuck does that mean?
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Pretty sure Iām selling my AAPL today at the open, due to the new China tariffs hammering the whole US market and the likelihood that Trump goes batshit crazy on Twitter today or in a media scrum and further hurts the markets. I suspect heās going to threaten tariffs like China has never seen before, etc, etc.
My friend and I have frequently discussed the theory that Trump and his administration are purposely manipulating stock markets in order to do their own version of insider trading, but I think itās basically predictable enough to make +EV trading decisions based on his behaviors. Iāve noticed a ton of churning in a somewhat predictable range.
(Iāve always been a buy and hold investor, though and will only be toying around with stocks Iām happy to hold long-term at prices Iām happy with long-term. A recession looming makes the risk of missing a big runup by selling my position relatively low, I think.)
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China has unveiled retaliatory tariffs against about $75bn (Ā£60bn) worth of US goods, putting up to 10% on top of existing rates in the latest tit-for-tat in the dispute between the worldās top two economies.
The salvo from China on Friday comes after the US unveiled tariffs on an additional $300bn of Chinese goods, including consumer electronics, scheduled to go into effect in two stages on 1 September and 15 December.
Chinaās commerce ministry said in a statement it would impose additional tariffs of 5% or 10% on a total of 5,078 items from the US, including agricultural products such as soya beans, and crude oil and light aircraft. It also reinstated tariffs on cars and car parts originating in the US.
So the whole planet is fucked:
https://twitter.com/adamramsay/status/1164510306024009729?s=21
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Jerome Powell says Fed remains āvigilantā
The Federal Reserve has released Jerome Powellās speech at Jackson Hole. Here are some highlights:
The US economy continues to perform well, but he notes a sharp drop in global long-term bond rates and volatility across stock markets
The risks to financial stability appear to be āmoderateā but Powell insists āwe remain vigilantā
He says the US economy is in a āfavourable placeā and that the Federal Reserve will āact as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labour market and inflation near its symmetric 2% objectiveā
Powell alludes to Washingtonās trade war with China, saying the central bank is well aware of ātrade policy uncertaintyā but is powerless to influence trade deals despite their affect on the US economy:
Setting trade policy is the business of Congress and the Administration, not that of the Fed. Our assignment is to use monetary policy to foster our statutory goals.
In principle, anything that affects the outlook for employment and inflation could also affect the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and that could include uncertainty about trade policy.
There are, however, no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation. Moreover, while monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade.
We can, however, try to look through what may be passing events, focus on how trade developments are affecting the outlook, and adjust policy to promote our objectives.
I guess Trump deserves some credit for existing in this space, because the neverTrump neocons would be calling for an invasion of Brazil because why the hell not?