I think there will be some voter suppression, basically in similar forms to 2020. Hell, voting in person and on Tuesday is voter suppression imo. (CA permanent absentee is solid.) I don’t think there can be a lot more voter suppression than 2010-2018, other than perhaps swing states with both GOP governor and legislature. Don’t think there are many of those, and changes to voting in 2019/20 can often be held up in the courts.
I expect the Russians to do similar things that they did in 2016, mainly disruption, propaganda, and such, which is far less effective than things like Druge and Fox News. I don’t think they will actually change any vote totals. The spooks in the NSA monitor Russian activity pretty closely, and changing vote totals is basically an act of war. Putin does not want to piss off the US much more and potentially have to face an angry Liz Warren.
I think he gains some equity from suppression and Russian activity, but not much more than 2016, and that’s the baseline where he barely eeked out a win.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time they’ll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks aren’t retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I don’t expect him to hit another 2 outer. He’ll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.