@simplicitus No concerns whatsoever about voter suppression, Russian hacking of voter rolls, or Russian hacking of election systems?
I believe those three add up to give him quite a bit of equity, especially as the GOP refuses to move on election security.
I also think he has at least one ace up his sleeve for next October, whether he realizes it or not is another question all together… But if he cuts a deal with China and lifts all the tariffs, the stock market will soar for a week or two and everyone will predict tons of economic growth.
Don’t be so negative. Nancy will write a strongly worded letter, the lawyers among us will assure us that the law will save us, nunnehi will have the impeachment whip count updated daily, and Trump is pretty old so you’re looking at three terms, maybe four max.
I’m guessing you’re meaning that the strongly worded letter will go out to the progressive wing of the party to belittle them for helping DJT win again.
I think there will be some voter suppression, basically in similar forms to 2020. Hell, voting in person and on Tuesday is voter suppression imo. (CA permanent absentee is solid.) I don’t think there can be a lot more voter suppression than 2010-2018, other than perhaps swing states with both GOP governor and legislature. Don’t think there are many of those, and changes to voting in 2019/20 can often be held up in the courts.
I expect the Russians to do similar things that they did in 2016, mainly disruption, propaganda, and such, which is far less effective than things like Druge and Fox News. I don’t think they will actually change any vote totals. The spooks in the NSA monitor Russian activity pretty closely, and changing vote totals is basically an act of war. Putin does not want to piss off the US much more and potentially have to face an angry Liz Warren.
I think he gains some equity from suppression and Russian activity, but not much more than 2016, and that’s the baseline where he barely eeked out a win.
Also, the NRA spent like $75 mil on Trump in 2016, and this time they’ll probably spend $0. I think the Kochs have also pulled back on spending, and Adelson may be dead by then. Also, GOP fundraising is always taxed by the significant grift component. These folks aren’t retiring from Congress because they think 2020 will be a cake walk. Remember, GOP had a pretty substantial House victory in 2016. What are they odds for them to retake the House? Can trump win if Dems win the house, even with a lower majority? That seems unlikely. The GOP got there asses out to vote in 2018, they were just swamped by the wave. There are a lot of passionate anti-Trumpers who will order their friends and family not to vote Trump. That may not be a huge effect, but Trump BARELY won in 2016, and he basically needs to run the table again. Finally, most people surrounding Trump are incompetent grifters. I don’t expect him to hit another 2 outer. He’ll probably campaign in like Alabama where he can get adoring crowds.
Not sure that’s entirely accurate, and it sounds like it might be a misleading comparison. He hasn’t been over 43% in 2.54 years, and it’s hard to win with 43%. That said, I could see a scenario vs Warren or Bernie where they are also at 43%, but I think they would have more mojo. Also, a competent campaign and/or events should be able to get him down to 39%
I’m torn. I fell similar to simplicitus adding on the fact that I think a LOT of people feel for the right wing/russia propaganda that Hillary was as bad as trump and she was a shoe in to win anyways etc so they stayed home and I think 2020 will have a massive, massive turn out which is good for dems obv.
But I also agree that I think Trump and his boys are going to pull some super dirty shit. It’s been made clear they won’t be held accountable at all so why not try? Even if they get caught nothing will happen.
The boring answer is being in the minority is no fun for legislators and they don’t see the House or WH going blue in the near future. But also, between Epstein and Deutchbank and Trump’s finances getting investigated, you have to wonder if there’s a bunch of scandals about to break.
Republicans have already been doing that for ages. My big concern is what happens when Trump just refuses to step down.
I read this article on the NYT that kinda worried me because it made a distinction between Trump’s national approval rating and his rating in states that matter for the 2020 election.
This stuff keeps me up at night:
Wisconsin was the tipping-point state in 2016, and it seems to hold that distinction now, at least based on the president’s approval rating among 2018 midterm voters.
Over all, the president’s approval rating was 47.1 percent in Wisconsin, above his 45.5 percent nationwide. This implies that the president’s advantage in the Electoral College, at least by his approval rating, is fairly similar to what it was in 2016.
