you mean just the presidency? man its hard to believe dems are polling +9 on generic house ballot, with lots of good looking senate polls and yet trump crushes as well.
Yes, Presidency. Congress doesnāt matter without the Presidency, at least with respect to limiting Trump. Obviously there are benefits to preventing horror show GOP legislation and ending the parade of recent law school grad GOP dipshit judges. He will be a lawless President though, end of story.
This would be especially fun because the right would be divided about whether to call bullshit on the whole thing or argue that it means Obama only gets 1 more term.
302 people in those battleground states were polled. Iām gonna go out on a limb and say itās unreliable.
Yea i just ran through looking at 538ās recent polls on all of the states listed in that tweet. The only two that arenāt just biden all the way down the list going back several months are GA and Ohio which I think everyone here has been saying those are unlikely since always.
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winning the house and senate would be mind melting though as we watch the Dem senate compromise on Trumps judge picks
Always a shit-stained lining lol
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Thatās my gut feeling too.
How many times have we thought the election should obviously break away from Trump this time? GOTV, youngs/minorities being engaged, Trumpās obvious incompetence, disillusioned people who have continued to see their paychecks erode, etc. But then, when the results start coming back, we get that sinking feeling again. The gains was just fractional, and in many places we backslid.
We need to stop deluding ourselves into thinking this isnāt something that a structurally advantaged plurality of the American populace actually wants. They want Trump so very much. And thereās no magic key to unlocking the supposed tidal wave of people we believe ought to be against Trump but who never fully materialize.
Can the other >half of the country overcome its massive structural disadvantage this time around? Maybe. Iām not super hopeful though.
Straightforward and I like the SFX for Trump using each branch of government as a shell game like heās asking you which cup the ball is inside. Unfortunately his supporters will see this as evidence Trump is an expert tactician.
A shorter version aired on several Fox News shows, including āHannityā and āTucker Carlson Tonightā in Washington D.C. on Tuesday.
This one too
but lol when I read up on former NJ governor Christine Whitman (R):
According to The New York Times , Whitman āseemed to be on a short list of vice presidential candidates in 2000, right up until July 8, 2000 ā days before the opening of the Republican National Convention in Philadelphia ā when a four-year-old photograph surfaced showing an oddly smiling Governor Whitman, surrounded by law enforcement agents, frisking a black drug suspect on a street in Camdenā.[19]
In 1996, Whitman had joined a New Jersey State Police patrol in Camden, New Jersey. During the patrol, the officers stopped a 16-year-old African American male named Sherron Rolax and frisked him. The police did not find any contraband on Rolaxās person, but Whitman frisked the youth as well.
A state trooper photographed the act. In 2000, the image of the smiling governor frisking Rolax was published in newspapers statewide, drawing criticism from civil rights leaders who saw the incident as a violation of Rolaxās civil rights and an endorsement of racial profiling by Whitman (especially since Rolax was not arrested or charged).
Whitman later told the press that she regretted the incident, and pointed to her efforts in 1999 to oppose the New Jersey State Police forceās racial profiling practices. In 2001, Rolax learned about the photograph and sued Whitman in federal court, claiming that the search was illegal and constituted an invasion of privacy. The appeals court agreed that the act did suggest āan intentional violationā of Rolaxās rights, and that he āwas detained and used for political purposes by his governorā, but upheld the trial courtās decision that it was too late to sue.[20][21]
Then-Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush selected Dick Cheney as his running mate in the 2000 presidential election.
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Maybe Iām the minority here but except for the hard core Trumpkins, pretty much everyone I know either never liked him in the first place or are sick and tired of his bullshit.
Trump is nowhere near as popular as he was in 2016. Half the country was rabid and frothing at the mouth. I just donāt get the same vibe this time around.
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The polls are worthless because they conflate approval with loyalty. Trumpās supporters might hate him on any given day. The polls will show that. But if thereās a threshold where their disapproval cracks through their loyalty, Iāve yet to see it.
If Trump wins again, Iām going to have to think long and hard about deleting all of my social media and ceasing to visit places that are liberal in nature, such as this website, CNN.com and any website that considers scientific fact to be, you know, fact.
Yep, the Supreme Court is likely going to rule him effectively king soon, which heās already been behaving as so itās only going to get worse if he wins re-electionā¦ Heāll tear down the rest of it and weāll have our own Putin. Dumb Putin, but authoritarian and dictatorial and murderous none the less.
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The important thing is that using a group of 15 states skews it. For example, New Mexico and Nevada arenāt swing states. Both have two Democratic senators and Democratic governors. New Mexico has gone Democratic in 6 of 7 presidential elections, picking Bush over Kerry, Nevada in 5 of 7 (Bush twice).
There are four key states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona.
As an example here, PA-WI-MI-AZ have 36 million residents, FL-OH-GA have 44.4 million. So if FL-GA-OH went Trump +5 compared to 2016 and PA-WI-MI-AZ went Dem +1, that would be a net gain overall in this poll for Trump - but decent news for Democrats.
Without checking, my guess is that CNN took the data from all 50 states and then decided how many states to count as ābattlegroundsā in order to see if they could get a clickbaity headline. Mission accomplished.
FWIW this is something Dems should be doing anyway, scare the shit out of your voters and turn them out.
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This is true, but I know a few people now who did not vote for him in 2016, hate him, and may vote for him in 2020 cause itās in their financial interest. A couple of them I havenāt seen since the pandemic, so maybe this has hurt them financially enough to reconsider.
I think this is true but I also think Biden will win pretty handily.
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Uhhh, wtf happened in this race? Hillary won this district by 7 points, and the Republican won the special election by 12 points. What? That is an absolutely massive swing. Anyone follow this race closely?
If this has something to do with mail-in ballots or turnout during the covid era, that would be a really, really bad sign. Like horrendously bad. Iām shook now and take back everything optimistic I said yesterday lol.
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Itās a red district that went blue for one election cycle. Itās probably an outlier.
I mean, if Trump wins because of a god damn once in a 100 year pandemic that keeps youngs from voting, thatās largely his own fucking fault, I will seriously entertain the possibility that we are living in a simulation.
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itās hard to say but dems were coming off a scandal that always loses some points, christy screwed up saying things that didnāt go well in that district, the Rās ran a latino military guy who was a good candidate, also that district was definitively R till hill, and itās a special election where Dās are afraid of getting covid and Rās donāt give a damn if they die (also theyāre way more fired up right now atm with the stuck at home stuff). Weird shit happens in special elections sometimes, itās hard to make anything of it other than republicans will definitely show up and vote and the same old story with democrats, theyāre always a maybe, trump wasnāt on the ballot.
CENK WOULD"VE WON!!!
(no he wouldnāt have obviously)
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