The Pozzidency of Donald J. Trump: Typhoid Donnie's Slow Hypoxic Demise **Sweat Thread** (updated 100x/minute)

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Adelson is evil and so is his wife, but she’s a Dr and may have lost her shit over Trump’s response. Whatever the specifics, Trump has alienated the single largest gop donor when his campaign is tight on cash. At least he can think back fondly on the two Super Bowl ads.

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Billionaires shitting on Trump is a good thing. I’m sure there’s a bunch of team owners that aren’t too happy right now.

https://twitter.com/conorjrogers/status/1303058207330299904?s=19

OH also processes mail in early (open envelope, verify signature), MI doesn’t. A lot will be known on election day.

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Trump brought the conversation around to the campaign and confronted Adelson about why he wasn’t doing more to bolster his reelection, according to three people with direct knowledge of the call. One of the people said it was apparent the president had no idea how much Adelson, who’s donated tens of millions of dollars to pro-Trump efforts over the years, had helped him. Adelson chose not to come back at Trump.

When word of the call circulated afterward, Republican Party officials grew alarmed the president had antagonized one of his biggest benefactors at a precarious moment in his campaign. They rushed to smooth things over with him, but the damage may have been done.

And then this lol

The president’s advisers blame America First for its struggles. They point to its decision to wait until spring to take on Biden and to its $4 million investment on a TV commercial that spotlighted Vice President Mike Pence but made no mention of Trump. The move infuriated the president’s advisers; on the morning the commercial was launched, a Trump adviser reached out to a POLITICO reporter unprompted to blast the move.

How dare they present a commercial that doesn’t feature Trump

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I was thinking about Adelson and how Trump fucking up the virus response would piss him off… Even with Vegas OFB, he had to be losing a lot of money

Nah the gun toating trump.supportung idiots in this country are mostly giant cowards and complete idiots. Its possible maybe even likely there is a crazy somewhere that will do something awful but mass violence… pfft. Just a lot of whinning on Twitter and Facebook.

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Most of them are tuf guy bros that are shocked when normal people fight back and don’t tolerate their bullshit. It’s why they back cops so much. They want them on their side in the them vs us war mentality they have.

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You love to see it.

I had to laugh at this. There are several shades of lunacy apparently, including vanilla.

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The authoritarian strongman is able to attack from both sides on an issue with zero accountability. When he proclaims his strength, as evidenced by his strong military spending, his supporters cheer, for he is strong. When he proclaims his dove-like foreign policy evidenced his lack of military spending, his supporters cheer, for he is saving them money.

What don’t I know about Nestle that I should know?

He’d have to misspell some stuff when copying it over. Ctrl-C, how does it work?

I’m not sure what you’re referencing? My point about the people who voluntarily live paycheck to paycheck because they blow all their money was just that them getting hit hard should affect discretionary consumer spending quite a bit and be reflected in the stock market, but that’s not happening.

Yeah I continue to be confused by companies that rely on discretionary consumer spending just crushing it in the stock market. Maybe everything is just lagging more than we realize? Could be that a lot of people are just charging stuff and haven’t made a big adjustment to their spending?

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Those who believe Fox News (or any elected official in the GOP) consider anyone left of Mitt Romney Justin Amash John Kasich to be a Marxist.

You did, motherfucker, nobody cared.

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Guy who picked Nestle pretty much linked this page

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Arizona took a while with the Sinema race, though. She ended up winning by 2.35% and it wasn’t called until six days after the election. If I recall correctly, she was behind on election night. I guess there’s a chance that if they already had mail-in, and expanded it, and they start counting two weeks early that the results would skew Dem early and the counting could be done sooner? Do they use paper ballots for their election day voting?

Not sure about Ariz and don’t really have above average knowledge of other states. I know CA will be slow but it won’t matter much. Main point is that a few bellwether states should have a fairly quick count and those results will likely tell the tale. If Biden wins OH or FL or GA it won’t matter how long WI and PA take to count, even if there is no one with 279 by 3am est.

COULD YOU IMAGINE IF I GOT CAUGHT DOING THINGS I DID?

is probably intentional lib triggering

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I keep seeing some random stats like dem requested absentee way up over republican in some places. High dem turnout seems consistent with 2018. Will be interesting to see if likely voter models are actually skewed against dems if based on 2016. Dunno, but I’d not be surprised if Biden outperforms models while i would be surprised if Trump does. I also wouldn’t be surprised if most models are fairly accurate and so are the polls. I suspect, due to the Nates and other things, that most polls are probably at least as accurate as their historical average. The technology has improved some.

That guy took quite a few before going down.

Of course their striking form was terrible. Kick to the balls will do it next time.

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Yeah sometime in October I want to go through the swing states and try to figure out how it’ll work in each, when the counting starts, how much is likely to be counted on election night, and what the partisan skew is likely to be. Then using that I can approximate what numbers we need to see on election night to feel good, to be shook as fuck, or to be on pins and needles for two weeks.

In a way it would almost be good if California was slower than usual and the early results skewed to Trump. Like, it would be something to point to as proof of the mail-in vs. in person skew in this election. Especially if Trump tried to claim victory there lol…

True. I actually told my buddy in TX I think there’s a non-zero chance Texas puts Biden officially over 270 or makes it obvious he’s going to win. They’re having pretty limited mail-in voting (absentee only) and Biden is drawing live.

I think something like this is possible on election night sometime between like 11pm and 4am EST:

FL too close to call and/or shenanigans slowing down the count, PA/MI/WI expected to take days to count mail-ins, AZ expected to take a week or so… Early results in PA/MI/WI have Trump up like 70-30 or 60-40 due to the mail-in vs in person skew, and he starts claiming victory on Twitter… Then Texas comes in for Biden and that’s that.

538 gives Biden a 28% chance to win Texas, and they can’t do much with the mail-in shenanigans there since they won’t have many mail-in ballots. If Texas gets called on election night for Biden, I think it’s very likely to be called waaaay before we know enough to call PA/MI/WI due to the abundance of mail-ins.

On the other hand, most Biden wins in TX should be narrow so it may not be called early on.

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