The NFL Thread 2: 1. T Swift

Sports & Other Games
1725

except one thing, analytics supported that play. Turner was hitting over .300 on a 1-2 count*, Muncy (a lefty) had a .150 ba going in and was facing a lefty. (a little sample size issue here of a fps, but anyone calling it dumb is just being the same mouthbreathing idiots who say that when a coach fails going for it on fourth down)

*career is lower obviously but it’s more akin to intentionally walking the 8 hitter to face the pitcher when that was a thing

at first I thought it was pure fps, but thinking about it–with that data probably was a good play except for the human element (ie, it really made muncy dig in and want to blast one)

but that just proves my point, even people here went all LOL THAT WAS DUMB without looking into why it was made, it was made because the other player was having a terrible season so far

1726

It’s only a good call if you base the analytics purely on this season and Turners super small sample size on 1-2 vs. LHP.

Turner is .283 vs LHP this season, to think that him being .300 on 1-2 vs LHP is relevant is just idiotic. Turner is good with 2 strikes, but no batter is actually better on 1-2 than overall.

I suspect that if you are basing it solely on this season and assume Muncy is actually a .150 hitter, LaRussa probably should have walked Turner to start the at-bat.

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1727

If Turner takes a ball on the first pitch, he should flail wildly and the next two, just to get the pitcher exactly where he wants him.

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1728

I just read Posnanski’s blog on this, he was as stunned as (literally) everyone else was aside from Tony La Russa:

People have broken down the statistical madness involved in this wacky decision — we can do that if you like, but I do feel that in so many ways this misses the point, sort of like spending time counting the number of steps that guy took before he cannon-ball jumped onto a hard sheet of ice that looked like a pool.

I mean it’s OBVIOUSLY madness to intentionally walk Turner there with two strikes. Obviously. Sure, La Russa blathered on about some ultra-specific stat — how well Turner has hit lefties this year with two strikes — which, frankly, is fairly insulting to talk about. Batters do not hit well after a 1-2 count. Which batters are were talking about?

Answer: ALL BATTERS

Wade Boggs after 1-2 count: .255/.304/.330

Mike Trout after 1-2 count: .212/303/.393

Miguel Cabrera after 1-2 count: .228/.285/.357

Barry Bonds after 1-2 count: .211/.315/427*

Chipper Jones: after 1-2 count:.200/.272/.349

**Bonds’ .742 OPS, while more than 300 points lower than his career OPS, is the HIGHEST ON RECORD after a 1-2 count.

BUT — Tony La Russa asks cheekily — do you know what he’s hitting after 1-2 counts this year?

And I do — he’s hitting .275/.296/.391, which is fine as far as that goes, but is such a small sample size that we obviously know it’s meaningless and … oh, wait, I’m sorry, that was not what Tony La Russa asked.

What he asked was: Do you know what Trea Turner is hitting this year after 1-2 counts AGAINST LEFTIES?

Ah. There’s a stat. How about — what is he hitting after 1-2 counts against lefties on a Thursday? No, wait, ask this one: What is he hitting on Thursdays after 1-2 counts in the sixth inning on the road against lefties with last names that start with S?

Isn’t it amazing how the people who most mock advanced statistics are the ones who rely on ultra-specific stats that could not possibly be more manufactured or meaningless?

Anyway, walking Turner there was simply indefensible, one of the worst intentional walks in memory, and in this particular case, Max Muncy — pleased to not have to bat with a 1-2 count — mashed a home run that put the game away.

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1729

Did someone get lost on the way to the MLB thread?

3 Likes
1733

Ya don’t say?

1 Like
1735

https://twitter.com/pardonmytake/status/1539645644742086657?s=21&t=V7YzGJ9WrHiIm9dRPL5WKQ

1736

https://twitter.com/Ravens/status/1539715282041769986

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1737

https://twitter.com/BrandonThornNFL/status/1540038843239391235

Willie Roaf was so ridiculous.

1738

LOLions

He began his professional football career with the NFL’s New Orleans Saints, who drafted him with the eighth pick of the first round in the 1993 draft. The draft pick was acquired from the [Detroit Lions] for the rights to [Pat Swilling]. Roaf played nine seasons for the Saints he was named to seven [Pro Bowls], and won a spot on both the [NFL 1990s All-Decade Team] and the [2000s All-Decade Team]

1739

2 seasons worth and neither of them were any good

but would you trade the 8th pick in the draft to make the playoffs twice? (you didn’t win any of those games and both were against the packers but still) alos you had to unretire a jersey number

but he was great for the saints right when the move was made, that’s a thing BB would do though on someone, hey you traded for gronk once and he said f that and retired so he didn’t have to go.

Someday the lions will be good, no idea when but someday

1740

Soon imo, I love what they are doing right now and division is up for grabs once Rodgers is gone

1741

So if Watson is out for a year what happens with his contract? Does he play next year for $1 million? Also seems stupid he didn’t just eat a suspension last year.

1742

He loses the $1 Million base salary and gets paid a $45 million bonus while being suspended for the full year.

Browns/Watson designed his contract so that he gets paid no matter what. Pretty sick stuff.

1743

https://twitter.com/BearsNationCHI/status/1541436085179498496

meanwhile in bears news, this was the convo today, the best coach I’ve seen in my lifetime was Lovie Smith and it’s not close (ditka was a bad head coach I’ll die on that hill)

the answer is Trestman, I remember he was just behind BB for 2nd on 2p2 after his first season and the next season, just an absolute failure of a head coach. For all the oh I totally could do better, well this nerd failed miserably at being a leader of a lockerroom. Funnier yet, he not only wrote a book on leadership, he teaches it at miami. More proof that education is a total joke. Proven to have literally zero leadership teaches the course at miami law. Standard though.

Better at offense than nagy but top 2 worst bears head coach of all time and it’s not close (Abe Gibron has the worst win percentage but it’s hard to tell, that’s when the sayers/butkus guys all had to retire from injuries and walter payton was drafted just after he was fired) Fox was a bland coach but nobody would’ve playoff’d with that roster but it wasn’t a tire fire like the trestman era despite trestman having a better record.

Now that it’s been quite some time might be worth doing a writeup of the era some time just to remind myself how bonkers that season was. Just horrible coaching even by bears coaching standards

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1744

You forgot

image

Lived in the burbs during his tenure. Local channel would now show the late afternoon game. We would get one hour of the Dave Wannstedt show followed by a movie, one week was literally creature from the black lagoon.

That’s what I’d get instead of 90s Cowboys at Niners.

1745

no I remember that era, he sucked but he’s well ahead of those three as being a head coach (in chicago anyway)

This includes building an entire offense around a player who got injured for the season early in the first game. but 9-7 beating the vikes in the playoffs, 9-7 (missing cause the 49ers blew it the final week), 7-9, 4-12, 4-12 (this team was very rough talent wise as in there wasn’t much at all)

dave mcginnis doesn’t count because the bears announced him as coach before he accepted the offer which pissed him off enough to say f those clowns.

1746

I think you underappreciate my pain. :disappointed_relieved:

1747

Time to oversee my kingdom.

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1748

How many tickets per shareholder do they give out?