The NFL Thread 2: 1. T Swift

I’m so pissed that nearly all of the Rangers playoff games have been on at night in the US. Give me an afternoon game so I can watch without pulling an all nighter dammit!

On topic. I bet the over on the Giants at 7 wins. If the team can finally stay healthy, they’re better than 7 wins.

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Even if Jones is mediocre it should be enough for a .500 season.

Probably won’t keep his job with one though

if the Giants win 7 I’ll be surprised, that offense is the worst in the league

yes I’d take the texans over them

https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1526608832255905794

Fucking hell man

For anyone who missed it:

https://twitter.com/mayorpizza/status/1526622939168362496

Dude cannot catch a single break.

I don’t really follow teams that aren’t the Packers, but I’ve always liked Tarik Cohen for some reason, and that was just from watching him on the field, before reading anything about him. Feel so bad for him.

he’s gotta find a new career, sad

I see motivational speaker in his future.

Man what kind of kool aid are you drinking? Barring injury the Giants should have a decent defensive line, edge rush, and some pieces on the O line but the rest of the team is ass.

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Good god the fall of the running back has been wild. Growing up they were the stars of their teams, second only to quarterbacks. Now you’re lucky if you even get a second contract. Guys legs are shot by their mid 20’s.

I still think teams, but mostly semi-knowledgeable fans, have reacted too far the other way. A top 5-10 running back is not that easy to come by, and does change the game in ways that don’t always show up in the stats.

I think the Chiefs win another Super Bowl with Kareem Hunt. Maybe two. Anyone who really watches the Chiefs knows he made a difference. The guy’s balance through contact was just insane. Dudes would charge straight at him with a head of steam then just harmlessly be deflected to the ground when they hit him. Teams were afraid of him ripping off a big run. They stacked the box. That opens up the passing game. And Hunt could catch, block, and never fumbled.

I try to get in discussions about this with the PFF guys on twitter, and they get my point at least. But then inevitably a dozen bros who’ve never done a statistical analysis in their lives pile on with “All running backs are exactly the same! Never pay a running back! Never draft a running back you idiot! Maybe the 7th round. No exceptions!” It’s not worth trying to have a discussion about.

I can get on board with never draft a RB in the first round. But if CEH was as good as Hunt I still think #32 was at least close to worth it. Also the 5th year option could come in handy since you likely don’t want to give a second contract. Let the Jets do take that on.

The big mistake imo, was in the execution. You better be damn sure you’re drafting a stud. CEH guy is slow, small and has terrible vision/instincts. I have no idea what they saw in him. Since he can’t outrun anyone and never makes anyone miss, he gets gang tackled a lot and winds up twisted up like a pretzel.

The difference is that for most guys in the top 5-10 of their positions, being elite for 7-10 years is the norm. Running backs seems to be lasting 3 at best. Guys like McCafree, Gurley, and Bell were world beaters one year and barely replacement grade the next.

Top 5-10 guys are handy but I still wouldn’t pay them more than like an Ekeler type contract (4/24). Actually four years is probably too long regardless although Ekeler will see it out (being a Udfa helps)

Yeah I’m not sure how much I’d ever pay one. But having one for cheap for 5 years might be nice.

One of the big problems with drafting a RB high is the second contract trap. If you draft a great RB prospect and he pans out, you’ll be pressured to give a big second contract but they rarely live up to it, and if they don’t it kills you from a cap perspective.

As easy as it is to sit here and say let them go after 5 years if they are still performing like a Todd Gurley or Leveon Bell it’s not easy or popular with the fan base. And if you let a guy go and he ends up being the next LDT your fans will hate you for it.

For example there’s a good chance Jonathan Taylor ends up killing the Colts cap and not performing in another 3-4 years. Or you have Zeke who’s good enough to stick on the roster and play but in no way worth his cap number under his second contract

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think if someone would break the mold and last longer than most right now it’s taylor though, just seems like that type of back.

Yeah that’s true.

I don’t think that risk is limited to higher draft picks. If a team gets a couple thousand yard seasons out of a RB, they are going to face a ton of pressure to extend him regardless of the original draft round.

The Kareem Hunt second contract would have been interesting.

Makes me sad for James Robinson. UFA, makes a bad Jags team for the minimum, watches them draft Etienne who gets hurt, and tears his Achilles at the end of year 2.

Frank Gore and Thomas Davis are nice stories, but we simply may never hear from him again…. Achilles injuries can be a career killer for RB’s.