not meant to re-live this, and comey stuff isn’t so clear. but i’m pretty sure she wins if russian fake news isn’t flooding every ad platform, or at least gets pushback from obama early enough.
2020 not being close is a very bizarre take. It was probably one of the closest elections in modern history when you consider a razor sharp margin in the House, the Senate coming down to very tight runoffs and ending 50/50 and the Presidential election taking 5 days to call(even without Covid it likely doesn’t get called as quickly as 2016). The 2000 election was probably closer but outside of that there aren’t many other recent examples.
Sure the popular vote wasn’t remotely close but that matters exactly 0%.
Also as a fun side note of how fucked the Dems have gotten in the last 20 years the Republicans actually won the national popular vote for House seats and LOST a seat in 2000. The same thing actually happened in 2016. With current GOP laws that would probably be a GOP +40 seat advantage. Arguing the state level gerrymandering and voter suppression happening right now is already baked in and can’t get any worse is a horrifically bad take. There is no sign the limits can’t continue to be pushed there and they are actively attempting it.
Turnout is going to be way down in 2024 isn’t it? One thing about the Republican strategy of doing more evil every day is that people eventually become numb to it. It’s hard to mobilize people to take action against something that has just because a fact of life.
Have you ever met the Democratic Party? There are many words to describe it but dominant or domineering are not among them. When they get control of all three branches of government they are ecstatic that they can finally force through a badly negotiated compromise. Temporarily.
Also, let’s cross that bridge when we get there.
The results of the redistricting control for 2021 resulted in a significant swing toward the Democrats. The GOP still controls a lot of seats, but 30-40 fewer than 2011.
Pretty clear that Trump drives turnout on both sides. I don’t think people should be afraid that Trump gained millions of votes in 2020 when he’s also going to create a ton of anti-Trump votes as well. Obviously it says a lot of bad things about the country but I don’t think Trump’s vote totals make him any more or less electorally viable than anyone previously thought.
Because of cheating and the EC, Trump will always be competitive, but he’s still a losing hand for the GOP. He was capped at 45% favorability in office, and just lost while maxing out all the cheating. He could win again, but it’s not like the GOP is in a strong position here.
Maybe not, but he was in office. He won’t have nearly as many tools at his disposal next time around.
Everyone cheating on his behalf will be doing it because they’re true believers. The grifters and opportunists won’t be activated because Grandpa Trump is yelling on his blog. USPS shenanigans is not something he can orchestrate from his blog posts, for example