The Crypto Thread

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1543637206874656768

a958216013529366528

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DebtHammer collected survey responses from a random sample of 1,660 adults aged 18 or older. Of those who responded, 1332 were via Survey Monkey and 323 were from DebtHammer’s subscriber list.

“random sample”

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“So then why aren’t you shorting crypto?”

https://twitter.com/web3isgreat/status/1544763598228029440?s=20&t=kr1DIRv2EhrZXgNQDk-H6A

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:coolbiden:

Haha, this just reminds me that I lost a bunch of money shorting two companies that went bankrupt. Shit is hard.

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It’s wild to me that you can be essentially correct about a short position and still lose all of your money just because your timing was off.

Seems like way out of the money options are basically always better but I’m sure spidercrab will be along shortly to tell me why that’s wrong.

I mean, you’re running the same risk that the stock has to crash within your horizon. I lost money shorting those garbage stocks because I didn’t have the guts to hold on while they kept going up. Out of the money options doesn’t really help.

Door dash is a garbage company that is probably a good short at $70 even after it’s lost 60% or whatever. Here are the out of the money puts expiring about 18 months from now. Is it obvious that any of these is a better bet than just shorting the stock? At the lowest strikes, the stock has to go down by 50% before you break even.

The premiums on options you pay for individual stocks is insane, like the equivalent of 25% rake.

I would highly stress my opinion that shorting DASH at 70 is a horrible idea. It’s one of those spots where you are likely going to be correct eventually, but could fall victim for too many other reasons that would make it a bad bet.

It took forever for a lot of the .com shit to crash and it will take longer for the over-leveraged, crypto, and NFTs to evaporate.

A big part of this short at this time is realized on when and to what degree the idiots lose faith on the shit you’re shorting. That will extend pass any fundamentals and a lot of margin calls.

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oh lol my bad (our/their bad to be specific) but much like the royal you i used with master that wasn’t actually a why aren’t YOU shorting crypto lol duh eerybody know you aren’t sharp enough for that royal or otherwise lol

you

wait i should restate my assumptions

maybe that’s precisely WHY that happened

how is a chatbot gonna pay you for a losing bet lol it aint got no hand to send a bank wire transfer

Your timing won’t be off if you don’t overleverage yourself (refer to my previous post) but come on buddy, what timing are we talking about? The heat death of the universe?

HAHA KNEW CRYPTO WAS GOING TO ZERO BUT GOOD THING CRUISE STONKING ARE STONKING IN THIS INFININTE COLD VOID

This is true, but it’s also true for any short. Almost tautologically, if you think the price is so absurd that it’s worth shorting, there’s really no logical reason why it can’t become even absurder.

If you keep the position small and you aren’t in a stock where the available shares are limited, the only real constraint is mental - will you be able to watch that short position lose money at the same time that it becomes a larger and larger portion of your portfolio.

All that being said, I think DASH is a bad short (at least for me) at these levels primarily because of its overall market cap. $25 billion or whatever is small enough where its conceivable that someone huge like Amazon or Facebook might step in and acquire it just because. At $100 billion, I think the risk of that was remote.

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Because student loans are never dischargeable and there is no statute of limitations, personal finance gurus recommend retaining student loan payoff paperwork for the rest of your life. Apart from this paperwork, proof of your payoff just resides in some centralized database where some bad actor could have an incentive to mess with the data.

  • Does anyone have a good IT solution for this problem?
  • Does anyone think this is a possible application for blockchain tech?
  • If yes, any explanation as to how it would work on a high-level?

I really enjoy the steady stream of articles about the lack of regulations and protection that can never seem to find a single bag holder complaining about it.

So, who made money in California gold rush? It wasn’t the miners, it was the pants and shovel sellers.

I get the sense that a lot of crypto companies were not only servicing customers but were snorting massive amounts of their own supply. Like, you can get legit rich selling or hosting miners. No need to take derivative positions where if the market dips you are likely to fail.

There are likely some very nice opportunities in the hosting-miners space atm, and gonna be some good deals at bankruptcy sales in a year.