My plan is to start DCA’ing out of BTC around 75k and ETH at 3k if they reach there in the short term. But small percentages at a time.
Conservative peak calls if this whole thing blows up in the next month or two would be BTC 100k and ETH 3600. If we can keep good market structure through the summer without a blow off top and push the peak towards later in the year I think highs could be 2x those numbers or more.
Total altcoin market cap is only around 2.5x 2018 highs. heated, but not anything to be too concerned about yet IMO.
Random projects pump and dumping is par for the course at this stage of the bull run based off my memories of 2017. Degens gonna degen. Shows there’s finally some resistence against just margin longing btc tops now which is to be expected. ETC pump has to be at least partly due to the inexplicable decision for robinhood to list that coin. All the small cap coins on RH have been pumping hard.
I asked a friend of mine who is into crypto about this too and his answer was similar. Basically people are going to be stupid and irrational with their money and gamble on shit coins and the only thing I should be asking is whether or not I still have faith in my own investment strategy.
I think that’s good advice. We’re also at a market cap now where what your normie friends are doing with their $500 “investments” doesn’t matter as much as it used to. The big players are here and we (mostly) know where they’re positioned. Whatever these reddit/telegram pump and dump groups are doing shouldn’t affect the large caps much. You could definitely make the argument that a lot of this new money will find its way back to the big three in the end anyway–and that most of the people selling BTC now are doing so with plans to rebuy. The fact that BTC still hasn’t even dipped below 60k through this chaos seems quite bullish to me.
Spoke with a friend of mine who bought 1k worth of dogecoin, and just sold it for $4200. His buddy bought $750 worth earlier than he had, and it’s worth $150k now and is not taking any profits yet. This is the closest I’ve come to having FOMO.
I’ve met the dude that’s HODLing $150k woth of dogecoin. He’s single, in his 30s, owns a house a block from the beach and makes $300k+. Doesn’t come from money, just an elite salesperson who happens to also be on a crypto heater. If he was a normie I’d lol at him for not taking profits.
If it hits $500 in the next few weeks I wouldn’t be selling yet. Probably more like $700 before I start taking some off. I probably should’ve put more of my stack into this ltc trade but I couldn’t bring myself to get rid of the btc. For now I’m topped off at an avg buy price of $176.
Keep in mind when dealing with alts I’m looking at the ratio vs btc just as much as the usd price. And I’m always willing to change my strategy on a dime as news and data in this space move at lightning speeds.
Don’t really do much trading, I’ve mostly just been a buy and hold guy. As the size of my portfolio has increased I’ve spent more time with the learning. Currently in my third year of the self employed life. Year one my work focus was 80% poker 20% crypto but now it’s more like 50/50. Definitely multiple hours of day of focus on average–and many more spent needlessly checking the 1m charts–the blessing and the curse of owning crypto
I still feel like a total beginner on the technical side but I’d like to think I’ve gained some skill in predicting how the price action will play out. I think if you can approach it with the same unemotional mindset that winning poker requires you will already be way ahead of the herd. There’s absolutely nothing special about my strategies. Completed up to intermediate econ during undergrad but that’s the extent of my financial education. With a proper crash course on leverage and derivatives I probably could’ve made a hell of a lot more profit.
My fingers are crossed that that’s not gonna happen but this DOGE business has me reassessing.
The thing is, it’s not pumping and dumping in a manipulation sense (even though there literally is a ‘pump’ then a ‘dump’) it’s that if you’re not buying the bottom, then you’re buying somebody’s bag, which is why I advise exercising extreme caution.