Nah, top shots is almost certainly still largely speculators. The market isnt really levered so there isnt forced selling.
Most people I know that have done pretty well at top shots still just have a bunch of bags that are way off the highs but would get a fraction of the current “marked” price if they had to sell. They made most of their money at the beginning and still make money trading and have done well elsewhere in crypto so feel no need to liqudate, but much of it isnt close to where it was in the real frenzy days. Their lack of selling certainly doesnt indicate a desire to hold long-term.
Thats not to say everything top shot is worthless, or no one wants to own any top shots, but that is definitely a speculators market IMO and the pricing/trading activity certainly doesnt say “oh there must be lots of non-speculators here”.
Suzzer so many people failed at exactly this. As people who actually did the thing, we get caught up in our own biases thinking that anyone could do it. Lots of survivorship bias in this forum. People that stuck around on 2+2 for a decade or so tended to do well at those things, but there’s so many more people who didn’t do well.
Ok this kind of confirms what I asked in my post just above. Long slow price discovery, with a lot of holders not really knowing what they could actually get vs. the marked price.
Do they post actual sales with amounts in the discord? Or is that a bad idea for various reasons?
I was thinking specifically about Guy, like he was a joke in poker circles and now has nothing to show for it but memories. If he dropped half as much in NFTs he’d be a fucking legend and he could at the very least hang some abstract piece on his wall. Guy isn’t framing and hanging any of his losing poker sessions on any walls
99%+ of the NFTs in the market today will have no long-term resale value. What that means is open to debate and probably only half relevant to making money playing NFTs today.
This is true and analogous to non-digital art. Another applicable analogy is that the technical quality of the art is often only loosely connected to the price.
So let’s just say BAYC eventually winds up where topshot is. There will be a bunch of dudes holding NFTs with 6-7 figure marked values for some indeterminate period of time, hoping the market goes back up.
Seems like there will be a lot of pressure from the club members a) not to sell and b) not to disclose if you sold for a massive discount. So that will work in their favor as far as preventing a crash.
And like LG said, there isn’t much leverage and I assume a big chunk of BAYCs were bought with crypto gains to begin with - not rent money. So there won’t be much pressure to sell.
That makes me less fascinated in this whole enterprise knowing there probably won’t be a great dramatic NFT crash. Although I guess if ETH crashes that’s probably the same thing. Does anyone know how much of ETH’s price is driven by the NFT market itself?
Only speaking for myself, I don’t want those of you who are highly skeptical/against NFTs to buy any. It’s almost certain you won’t enjoy the experience and will lose money at it. I think if you have any interest at all in this area, you should start by exploring cryptocurrency first. Then invest in certain cryptocurrency projects if you find them interesting or think they’re a potentially good investment.
Only from there would I ever start looking into things like NFTs or defi.
This thread is kinda confusing bc people get testy when you call it a bubble, but at the same time most of the guys playing the game basically think it’s going to all come crashing down someday.