The Crypto Thread

Or he could be a non-parasite and buy something real like stocks in oil companies, gun manufacturers or textile companies manufacturing in Bangladeshi sweatshops.

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share the wealth goddamn capitalist pigs.

But why? What makes investing in a basket of companies which give you a variable positive return because they are expected to grow different than “investing” in a company which uses your money to invest and grow, only its business model is to give you a fixed return in advance instead of a variable one.

Sure I was being sardonic, but it’s also clear that Riverman has no idea what the risk profile is or where the returns come from. Like is Gemini going to go under? Are they going to take your money and run? Go ask a non-crypto investment company aka a hedge fund if a 8% return is even that impressive.

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I would like to hear more.

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Is this supposed to be an allegory for crypto skeptics? Or just a really unlucky TR?

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It can be both

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These types of TRs that are just bad after bad really appeal to the Jewishness in me.

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Oh it’s one of my favorite posts I ever read on 22

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one of the things people struggle with the most is how to take the ‘not being result oriented’ approach from poker into other aspects. usually they use it as a reason to keep their existing opinions regardless of any new evidence

This is absolutely false. I am getting passive income returns on almost every single crypto asset I own. That’s what all this DeFi stuff is about. There are thousands of ways to invest across dozens of platforms. You can stake other crypto projects. You can loan out your crypto. You can earn fees by adding liquidity to decentralized exchanges.

One of my biggest leaks is that I hate having stuff just sitting there so much that I’m never liquid when I need to be.

That’s what Gemini is indeed doing you’re right, I phrased it as investing in their business model to complete the analogy but probably made it sound more specious. As soon as they can’t lend out the money for that rate, they’re going to lower their offered rates. I believe they’ve already done so in the past.

My general point was that the expected return of SPY which is advocated by every financial professional and hugely pushed by people like Riverman seems no less based on voodoo and “past performance” arguments which if they were made by someone regarding crypto would be laughed out of the room. The is especially true if you’re a typical progressive who thinks America is in decline! Here we are screaming about late-stage capitalism yet expecting our portfolio returns to be correlated to those during WW2.

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Except that houses have an intrinsic value, which creates a floor. When buying gets cheaper than renting, people buy, even if the housing market is in complete freefall.

When crypto is in freefall, after all the buy the dips people have been wiped out, and even the hard core HODLs are starting to crack, there is nothing to stop it from going to zero.

alright, well you probably shouldn’t buy it then

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That’s like saying a bag of money is an asset that creates passive income because I could use it to fund profitable projects.

I’m just saying this is one of the fundamental principles of this stuff - what’s to backstop an asset in freefall? Dotcom stocks hit rock bottom and were finally a good value. Gold is shiny and people like to own it. Tulip bulbs at least make a nice flower. When pyramid schemes collapse, they collapse entirely.

Ironically, if BTC collapses and all the people holding it as an investment bail, it might actually become a useful currency. I could potentially see that as an end game. But not until all the speculators have been cleaned out.

What’s stopping it from going to zero is the same as the house going to zero - its raw value, which us pea-brains really can’t quantify yet.

Bitcoin is either the biggest ponzi/pyramid/bubble catastrophe of our lifetime or it’s been heavily consumed by the big money caps before the average folk realizes what the world will look like 20 years from now. It really can’t be that much of a combination of both. The longer time goes without it crashing, the more the latter will be correct.

BTC by definition has no raw value other than the goodwill of people who like to own it.

USD is backed by the US government, which has tanks and fighter jets. It also has a multi-century track record and at the moment is the world’s reserve currency.

The network is the value

If everyone sold their BTC tomorrow, the network would have zero value. It’s a notion.

This is something illustrates just how long it can take for shit like this to fall apart. You’re definitely old enough to know that the dotcom wasn’t some 1 month long thing. It took like 4 years. People see the price of meme stocks as just “part of the norm” now and don’t really understand just how long it took for bubbles to actually burst.