The Crypto Thread

Yes, but where? My understanding is what you say – it’s a “store of value” – was the intention with BTC but not ETH. For ETH, it is used widely to create decentralized finance apps. Like art trading or horse racing.

ETA: “widely” … it is the platform on which most of these apps today are being built

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Could be. Does anyone expect BTC to just vanish? That seems like a long shot.

Also, the idea that environmental concerns kill crypto is completely absurd, in my opinion. Have environmental concerns killed anything in this capitalistic hellscape we’re dreaming?

Plus … that problem will be solved, one way or another. Whether mining becomes an enabler of renewables, the energy consumption of mining or attestment is slashed, the world’s energy supply is decarbonized, or decarbonized energy is cheapest, it will be solved. … not in time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, or anything, but solved enough for crypto to keep on chugging.

Biden stood up at COP26 and said keeping CC to 1.5C is still in reach. OTOH, I talk to utilities planning for 4C change. It’s all nonsense. We lost the ability to avoid the worst a long time ago, but “worst” is a moving target that only gets … worse.

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The true end game for all this stuff is to get so big that you commit actual financial institutions to holding these assets. That way when they crash they’ll be too big to fail and we’ll get quantitative easing so that the government can guarantee the value of goofys squiggle. I think we will see an ape bailout in my lifetime and I can’t wait to see what essential services they’ll have to eliminate to balance things out.

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https://twitter.com/Bowsnonk/status/1455279107743305734

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dump them for a higher class of friends–are you a shitlib now?

I think it’s important to note that so far basically nobody has been right about crypto. All of the real world use cases remain woolly and unrealized. It continues to be a solution in search of problems. However, it also continues to not collapse, and its theoretical benefits remain possible. Since absolutely no one could have predicted the path of the past 10 years, it seems foolish to claim anybody can predict the next 10.

We live in a world where the entire crypto system might implode tomorrow afternoon causing a worldwide economic depression, and we also live in a world where a meme coin could become the next global reserve currency, and we live in a world where somehow both of those things could happen at the same time, and nobody has any clear idea what the probability of any of those events really are.

So it certainly seems like a terrible idea to invest your entire life savings in SHIB and gif trading. But it also seems like a terrible idea to not have some exposure to these markets. At this point I think it’s just pigheadedness to stay completely out of it. I don’t know what the right amount is where an individual is personally comfortable with either mooning or collapse, but it’s probably not zero.

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This seems like the kind of post I’d be reading right before a giant bubble popping, just sayin’.

It is, but it’s also the same advice you could have read 5 years ago from crypto bro’s.

People insisting they are Early™ and people screaming it’s a Ponzi scheme are both trying to predict the future. I demonstrably suck at predicting the future, so instead I have decided to position myself where neither outcome makes me feel like sticking my head in the oven.

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Right, but now also non-crypto bros feel compelled to jump in.

Yep, it’s the barbell investing approach. Putting a smallish portion in something with high risk / high reward. The risk amount differs for everyone but I think even just putting a few % of networth is some risk just about anyone could take on. Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere, and a lot of people are going to want to get some skin in the game or risk getting left behind. Institutions are beginning to find this out as well, we’re going to see more and more of them hold Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and to protect their company’s value relative to others that are holding Bitcoin.

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I mean, it’s being advertised literally everywhere now. Buzztime Trivia is pimping it on their network. You see Matt Damon’s mug there during NFL games now. That’s who they’re aiming for it seems :man_shrugging:

If you’re predicting imminent crypto armageddon you should probably specify where you think people are going to put their money instead. Equities look obviously overvalued, interest rates are low, real estate is questionable, holding cash is asinine. It’s an inflationary environment of cheap credit which encourages speculation and inflation hedges and those happen to be the two prime reasons to hold crypto.

I’m still a BTC skeptic in the longer term but crypto/blockchain in a more general sense are most definitely not going anywhere and I don’t see any reason why a bust would happen now - unless the stonks market collapses, which is a possibility. But like I said what are you going to do, hold cash?

Yes, and here we’ve cut taxes to the point that our millionaires just literally have $$$ lying about looking for a return to chase.

One of the classes in my masters in accounting program had a unit on blockchain, it is absolutely mainstream now.

I mean, it seems like the perfect ingredients to hold cash and pay off debt?

There’s too much inflation potential to hold cash. Inflation will also devalue debt and you shouldn’t be paying high interest rates on debt anyway.

I should hasten to add I’m not an expert or even a particularly well informed amateur here, but it’s a problem I’m personally dealing with. I have money to invest and I’m like wtf do I do with this? The stock market looks like a house of cards. Nothing like term deposits or bonds are paying returns. I was intending to buy a house in the near future but the already-high property market here has jumped 20% over the last year on the back of absurdly low interest rates. So wtf do I buy? I’m not a crypto permabull HODLer by any stretch but I have like 20% of net wealth in crypto basically by process of elimination.

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Same boat. Already well vested in stocks and continue to build up my position, even with indices at ATHs and knowing that valuations are a sham.

Most people would laugh at how much cash I retain while I watch its value erode year after year as the fed continues to print more and more. Already own a house free and clear.

So what other attractive investment vehicles are left other than crypto?

Not in Japan.