The reports ITT of evacuations with no traffic made it clear a lot of people decided to ride it out. I saw someone on TikTok who planned to ride it out in a kayak, expecting 3-9 feet of water upstairs.
IIRC this is a known bias/heuristic where people tend to round unlikely events to 0% probability and round likely events to 100% probability, but I can’t remember its name and google hasn’t helped. Probably a Kahneman and Tversky thing.
1 Like
People who have lived there for a long time are used to normal hurricanes that only severely impact a pretty narrow area. They’re not used to behemoth Cat 4/5 storms that push an obscene amount of water in due to their size and massive wind fields. Being at the edge of the cone of probability for a normal old fashioned hurricane wasn’t a big deal, really.
Also, Florida Man doesn’t trust the media, the scientists, or the weatherman, and he certainly doesn’t believe in climate change. So Florida Man is way more likely to try to ride it out.
That said, damn near the entire Gulf Coast is Florida Man territory, even outside of Florida.
1 Like
Yeah, as I mentioned earlier, my niece from Cape Coral left in the early morning hours yesterday and made it to my house across the state without major problems. No traffic. Seems clear that a lot of people could have at least gotten out of harm’s way by driving east and just sitting in their cars in a parking lot somewhere if they had no place to go.
3 Likes
Any word on her husband? It sounded like Cape Coral took a pretty bad hit.
He was okay as of 8am. Cell service is spotty, so she’s worried cause he hasn’t responded since then. But they’ve lost their fence, had some roof damage, trees down, but not flooded. So that’s a blessing.
5 Likes
Glad to hear he’s ok and the storm surge wasn’t bad near him. They must be near Cape Coral but not actually in it, right? Sounded like it was totally underwater.
They were actually in the evacuation zone “B” but bordering on “C”. So, really should have left. No question. She made the right call. He didn’t imo. But they have a bunch of pets. She only brought one little dog with her, but I would have taken them all in anyway. He fits the Florida man profile.
https://twitter.com/KennyMoralesTV/status/1575506623954550784?t=Bf8UQ-GKUtTY_4hMQabrRA&s=19
https://twitter.com/Mr_JCE/status/1575505912768479233?t=xLbohBOXSc6aVW1Cntc_2A&s=19
https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1575504948292456453?t=-G5bozyFfF1XuKMqNz2wGA&s=19
1 Like
Evacuations are a tricky thing. Obv, everyone should heed the mandatory evacuation orders at an absolute bare minimum. But you end up with two different camps of folks that stay to “ride out” a hurricane. The folks that hunker down prepared with their shotguns to protect their daggum property, and old people that really have nowhere to go. The first group is a resource sink but lives, the second group dies.
1 Like
Didn’t even mention Chili smh
1 Like
I’ve been there.
On NPR just now it sounded like the estimate of hundreds of deaths was walked back. Hopefully it was just a mis-statement and the actual toll will be much lower.
2 Likes
My understanding is that’s not a residential area, right? Pier, boardwalk, arcades, restaurants, etc?
Apparently the causeway that connects Sanibel Island to the mainland is out, a big section washed away.
All I know about Sanibel Island is that it’s got one of the nicest beaches in the country, and it’s relatively small. Are there a lot of homes there or is it mainly just a spot for tourists and beach goers?
It’s not heavily populated, a couple resorts, some houses, a preserve.
1 Like
Also poor people. Not just olds.
1 Like
Yes, that’s the area in the video. Restaurants and stores. Touristy. They did a ball drop in Times Square on NYE. I think they did something like a pineapple or beach ball.
https://twitter.com/Bidens__Laptop/status/1575512576347328516?s=20&t=HcS0bPBTi95nY1KuU9zneA
Yeah, I’m responding to the video of FMB showing places I’ve been.