yeah fml
i seriously can’t decide if SEA-SFO gonna be crazy owned because it’s the only ‘good’ game without weather issues or it will be under owned even though it’s the only ‘good’ game without weather.
Spray ‘n’ pray
The problem with these NFL GPPs is that they are all huge fields, but you still need to place top 3 to realize any ROI. Even the high stakes single entry tournaments have thousands of players now, whereas the MLB nightly $100 / $222 probably average around 150 players. In NFL, those fields are in the thousands. I’ve probably shipped around 10 of the MLB ones in the last few years, yet I don’t recall ever having a sweat in the NFL contests.
And it’s obviously super easy to brick en entire NFL season just playing tournaments. Since they killed off the Th-Mon slate and shortened Sunday, there are really only about 16 good tournament slates in a year. Baseball has like 200 and NBA has a lot. But the underlying principle is simple: if you play tournaments, you need to win 1st place, and that’s pretty tough to do with only ~16 shots in fields ranging from 2,000 to 900,000 entries.
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I’m more than 2x over the field on Cook and i’m not winning much
Yeah last week I did 15 hand builds for single entry and 3max and threw them all into the milly because why not. In the milly I cashed 12/15 for an ROI of about 30%. Obv it’s a terrible structure but the other contests aren’t much better tbh.
This is like the sourdough bread thread of sports
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honestly i’m kinda surprised how no one in an ex-poker forum plays dfs.
Well, the people in this ex-poker forum hardly play any poker either.
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sure but there are more than 2. the correlation between dfs and poker is pretty clear.
Should I just start another tout site? This is dumb and I think I’ll prob be checked out by the time NBA starts back up.
What are you mad about?
I think there are still big theory edges in dfs. DST use seems to be one. Today was a good example with the Dolphins. They crushed with 2 defensive tds which caused a game where the Rams were chasing so both Kupp and Woods were in the top 5 wide receivers. i bet there barely any lineups with Fins D, no skill players and Rams WR, although this is a perfectly logical game script.
I call it the Jamies Winston syndrome, as last year he had weeks where he was the highest scoring QB, Evans/Godwin were the highest scoring WR and the opponent DST was the highest scoring defense.
What is a big theory edge and how does it compare to actual edge? Because all of the evidence is that actual edges are small. EM2 said he thinks he’s probably -115 taking HU in NBA and he skips nights where everyone will lose to rake. The “best” NBA cash player being -115 doesn’t sound like a game where big edges are still available.
And again, I think my point stands about NFL: if you were a ~30% ROI GPP player, you could theoretically run bad forever with so few slates. It’s not a game where you can realistically realize your expectation anymore than WSOP is.
Nope, it’s not an easy game. It is fun though.
Hot off the Monte Carlo simulation press are my ownership projections for FanDuel Sunday Night Football:
| NAME | TEAM | SALARY | MVP.OS | Total.OS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 16000 | 0.374 | 0.818 |
| Boston Scott | PHI | 10500 | 0.219 | 0.746 |
| Ben DiNucci | DAL | 13500 | 0.125 | 0.498 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 15000 | 0.089 | 0.380 |
| Travis Fulgham | PHI | 13000 | 0.070 | 0.379 |
| Amari Cooper | DAL | 14500 | 0.015 | 0.147 |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 12000 | 0.029 | 0.289 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 9500 | 0.028 | 0.360 |
| Jalen Reagor | PHI | 8500 | 0.022 | 0.352 |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | 11000 | 0.006 | 0.167 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | 9000 | 0.009 | 0.244 |
| Greg Ward | PHI | 7500 | 0.013 | 0.314 |
| Greg Zuerlein | DAL | 8500 | 0.000 | 0.078 |
| Richard Rodgers | PHI | 8500 | 0.000 | 0.029 |
| John Hightower | PHI | 7000 | 0.001 | 0.108 |
| Dalton Schultz | DAL | 9000 | 0.000 | 0.020 |
| Tony Pollard | DAL | 6500 | 0.000 | 0.023 |
| Corey Clement | PHI | 5000 | 0.000 | 0.043 |
| Jason Huntley | PHI | 5000 | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| Cedrick Wilson | DAL | 7000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Blake Bell | DAL | 5000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
I would definitely bet Wence over 37.5% MVP and maybe over 82% total. Don’t see anything else I’d be in love with shopping.
lol i was winning a lot for a while. The last 40 minutes it was fun to refresh and see how I’m losing 1k per minute.
Can’t this game just fucking end lol? I liked Kamara and ARob a ton today but obv couldn’t fit them with Dalvin and KC.
My best lineup finished 6,600th out of 660,000 (top 1%) for a $6.66 net profit. Needless to say I did not win money today.