Thanks, Jerome.
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Can do that with crypto
I concur with the Ackman take that 2% inflation is probably no longer a good target. ‘Hardening’ of supply chains, labor shortages due to demographics, and change in energy economy are all inherently inflationary.
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I still think we’re going to see less than 2% inflation come April/May
I would argue that the demographic shift is inherently disinflationary. The world does not have a shortage of workers but the US has a shortage of visas. Easy hypothetical solution, impossible political solution.
Jobs are just going to go overseas.
One of my big macro predictions for the next 20 years is that high skill jobs will go to the developing world in mass numbers.
Basically. People like my wife, young, talented, well educated, super comfortable with tech, are going to take the jobs of every well paid semi mediocre white gen x on the planet.
It already happens with low skill outsourced jobs and manufacturing, but WFH and remote tech is going to devour every other professional job.
Doctors, lawyers, marketers, tech, sales, project managers, engineers, managers…all fucked.
This is really one of those, the future is not going to be predicted from the past, type moments.
Outsourcing of contact centres.
- fully outsourced. You move the management of the team overseas as well. Creating significant barriers to knowledge transfer, process management etc
- is targeted at low cost labour
- is part of a general trend of underinvestment in support
That’s not what I’m talking about. I’m talking about direct competition between the best graduates in the developing world, and the mid tier of un tech savvy gen xers and boomers. Enabled by tech that makes being trained and engaging with teams almost equivalent remotely as going to the office.
What do you call the guy who graduated last at medical school? Doctor.
It’s that guy who’s going to be in trouble.
Regarding “some lawyer in thailand” that’s an appeal to how things are done today.
If you call up your local chain of well regarded lawyers, speak over video with a well dressed young asian with perfect english who knows their shit, you aren’t going to care where they are based.
20 years ago everyone said all software jobs were going to India and yeah that didn’t work out too well.
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Yeah, Surf has a point. Never mind the national level, many professions are regulated by individual states with little or no reciprocity. Are you an architect in Nebraska? Great, but you’re not an architect anywhere else.
The regulations are written by the industries being regulated. They’re not giving up the protectionism they worked so hard to create.
Okay. So now which is it. “Will never hapen” or “will never happen but only because of protectionism and cartels?”
I.e. for not protected professions, possible?
Also. What’s stopping a lawyer in thailand qualifying for the local state bar btw? Is there.a.barrier?
Could a qualified american lawyer move to Thailand to practice remotely?
If these things arent possible now, theres going to be more and more pressure to enable them when the best talent is overseas at 50% of the price or less.
FWIW. Thailand probably not going to be he first place due to lack of English.
Theres 2.75 million software engineers in india. Vs 4.4 in US.
Much of that growth in india is the last 5 years. What do you think that figure will be in the next 5 years?
There are ludicrous rules on physicians moving to the USA, even from places with comparable level of training like in Europe. Usually it requires passing several special tests and, more importantly, repeating residency which is damn near impossible for a lot of foreign doctors in the specialty they’re already in, never mind the opportunity cost
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I threw in doctors to be a little provocative. Anything that benefits from physical presence is going to be much harder to move and be the last to go. I think you’ll continue to see medical services move overseas though.
Continue? What makes you think that’s happening now?
And I’m not counting all the folks in US on skilled immigrant visas.
A lot of insurance and companies with medical admin work hire fully trained nurses in the Philippines to work in call centers.
Honestly, I’m expecting more protectionism and isolationism in the coming years than anything else. That seems to be the direction many governments and people want to go.
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They hire them to work in the USA too. Filipino nurses are a thing, and have been for a long time. That’s wholly different.
Those numbers don’t matter exactly IMO, what matters is the number of US companies moving software jobs from the US to India permanently which anecdotally I’m not seeing at all. Especially since India wages have increased a lot.