Speculating about the origin of the coronavirus

[Lawnmower_Man]

@anon38180840

His results before and after the cheating started were very different. He went from paying off for stacks in cooler spots and sometimes bluffing into monster to never ever ever doing either.

This is begging the question. If I ask how you know he’s cheating, you can’t say it’s because his results were very different after cheating. That requires me to assume the conclusion.

@anon38180840

His winrate was obscene and impossible. Like I’m not big on any winrate being impossible, per se, but there is a ceiling on it and even though it’s higher than many thing it’s way below what he was winning.

Impossible? It seems like the only way a winrate could literally be impossible is if he won more than was ever in play or something. Why couldn’t he play perfect merely from guessing correctly a bunch of times in a row? It’s obviously not impossible.

@anon38180840

Even if you’re the best at live reads in the history of the world, sometimes you’re just going to be wrong. Someone’s going to glance in a certain direction because the cocktail waitress bent over, look down because they’re tired, blink a lot because they got something in their eye, look away and watch the TV because there are 10 seconds left in the game, etc, and you just pile it in off a live read and dust it off now and then. (Side note, any time you catch the feigned disinterest tell of someone watching TV and look up and see a commercial, they’re monster.)

You are merely claiming it cannot be done and I don’t really see why it can’t. I watched TV poker on Travel Channel back around 2003 and remember it was quite a setup. There was some unknown angular Swede winning every pot against a cadre of old Vegas pros and the announcers were suggesting it was so improbable and they’d never seen anything like it. He was intimidating–sleek and muscular like a jungle cat. I remember this one announcer in an off-the-rack suit said something like “You can’t put in another raise with an Ace Jack here, folks.” I’m thinking why not–these players are all giant pussies. Sure enough this Swede does exactly that and some idiot reluctantly counts out a call. “Now the ten of spade comes off. He really has to hate that card.” And this balls-of-steel Swede wastes no time sliding another clay castle into the middle with absolutely nothing and the hefty fellow sighs and folds. Of course, this dude could have simply whipped all of their asses at any point like Tiger Woods on the 97 pro tour. And, predictably, they kept folding the winning hands until he was hoisting a giant dinner plate. I suppose he must have been cheating too.

@anon38180840

There are plenty of theories regarding communication devices, we just don’t specifically know which one. But his behavior got really weird right when he started winning big, he started putting his cell phone in weird places, he had a bulge in his hat, he started putting his head down or putting his hands on his head a lot.

This is like a madlib for every conspiracy theory I’ve ever read.

@anon38180840

Yeah, no matter how good you are at this, you can’t be 100% because of some of the examples above. I’m a big believer in live reads and pretty good at it, but they don’t occur in a vacuum environment where the only thing influencing the person’s physical reactions is the poker hand.

I don’t believe this is accurate. He wasn’t absolutely 100% perfect. I remember people showing some examples where he called and lost.

So basically your position so far is that he must be cheating because no one has ever been this good before. The things he’s doing are impossible because no other person has done them. I think you need more specific arguments than that because it’s not clear to me why he can’t simply be that good. Like, just looking at it as an outsider I see a guy owning a bunch of sore losers who decided to retaliate. There must be some esoteric reasons specific to poker you can give since so many pros seem convinced he’s cheating.