Senate 2024

The map for these elections, like in the previous Class 1 Senate election in 2018, is considered by elections analysts to be unfavorable to Democrats, who will be defending 23 of the 33 seats of Class 1.

Lold at this quote from Tester

“Republicans are “trying to change local election laws to look more like California’s in an attempt to gain political power for themselves,” said Shelbi Dantic, a spokeswoman for Mr. Tester’s re-election campaign.”

He may challenge Casey.

This is about where I’m at right now. A lot can change in the next 18 months though.


So best case scenario is 51-49R with Tester winning MT?

I dont see any other possible pickups. WV and OH seem like lost causes.

I’d say it’s not best case, but it’s one of the better ones. This is an awful map, and this group of senators haven’t faced a really tough election cycle yet.

It’s still possible that Republicans fuck this up hard though with the truly insane things they’re doing. That said, it is also possible that Democrats lose 8+ seats this cycle.

Do you see anywhere dems can get 50-50, or 51-49? Cause even with unbelievable R fuckups, its hard to see

It’s gonna take unbelievable fuckups, the kind that make the GOP so hated that TX and FL are in play. It’s not impossible, but yeah the senate outlook ranges from somewhat bad to absolute horror show.

I still hold out hope for Sherrod Brown. He’s a unicorn in Ohio politics, one of the vanishingly few Dems who can actually get votes in that hellscape.

Need Tester and Sherrod Brown to hold. Don’t like the odds of that.

Yeah, that seat is toast if Justice is running.

Would have been nice if we had a little more margin for error. (Thanks to the ~10% of Maine voters for voting Biden/Collins. Also special shout out to that assclown in North Carolina for not keeping his dick in his pants)

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Does Manchin have a shot if this Mooney guy wins the R primary? (I’d guess not much of one, but I’m not going to pretend to be super up on WV politics)

Not worried about that. When Hershel Walker couldn’t win a Senate race in Georgia I’ve gotten less scared of sport stars. Former hosts of The Apprentice still scare me.

Justice is mega popular in WV, he’s going to win easily.

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