Might as well kick this off now considering TWO Georgia seats will now be up for election.
https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/1166721527934529537
https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1166721622696505345
Kemp gets to appoint someone to fill Isakson’s spot until next year but then it’s a special election for the remainder of that term (until 2022). I wonder if Abrams has known about this and that’s why she’s been waiting?
Quite an interesting decision in terms of which one to run against - the weaker candidate, but you only get the seat for two years, or the stronger incumbent but you get the full term?
Doesn’t matter anyway, Kemp will make sure they rig the shit out of the election.
Seems like Isakson seat would be the choice to me. Yes if you win you will be running for reelection in 2 years in midterm of D president (if Ds win GA senate they are winning the presidency) but you will also have incumbency advantage.
Definitely the weaker, two year spot.
But like you said, I have no confidence that these elections will be anywhere near fair.
As far as I understand, we don’t even have a Federal Elections Commission as of the end of this month.
The one nice thing is there are so many idiots who will vote for one Dem and one Rep because they think they are being moderate or whatever so if she runs in the open seat even people who wouldn’t otherwise vote for her will actually do it.
Yeah, you’d be a huge underdog in that situation in 2022, though. If your goal is just to kind of do a smash and grab - get that Senate majority, nuke the filibuster, jam a bunch of stuff through, you could run for the Isakson seat.
Like, let’s say you were 100% confident that you were going to get a Dem president and the caucus would be on board for nuking the filibuster, doing democracy reform and fixing another major issue (healthcare, climate, etc), you’d be a liberal hero for putting the country first and running for the more getable seat even for a 2-year term… That would buy you some future political goodwill.
But the likelihood that all of that happens and that people remember when the time comes is relatively low.
On the other hand, if you run against Perdue and win, the upside is bigger. You’re in for six years and by 2026, demographics and party alignment could shift enough to make you a favorite for re-election.
If the Isakson term ran through 2024, I think it would be the choice, given re-election in a presidential year. But 2022 is near-certain demise. Kemp will be up for re-election so he’ll be going extra HAM with all of the suppression and quasi-legal shenanigans, like “Oh, lol, did you guys need power cables in those majority-black districts to run your voting machines? Oopsy! Totally honest mistake!”
There’s going to be more attention in 2020 and he has less to personally gain, so the likelihoiod of that kind of bullshit happening is at least a little bit lower, and by 2026 you may be able to overcome it on the strength of a shifting electorate.
That’s a really bad statement for a few reasons. There’s just no reason to say anything other than the first part. Give your thoughts and wish him well health wise, say something like, “Although we disagree vehemently on policy, I want to extend my best wishes for his health and our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family in a difficult time.”
Getting into the political side is an unforced error either way, but it’s hard to believe anyone actually believes she’s not weighing a run. She may want to weigh her VP chances based on who’s leading in the polls in the primary up until the last minute, because she can’t very well run for the Senate, drop out and leave the Dems without anyone on the ballot.
It would be a classic selfish establishment punt if Biden named her as his VP early on in the primary, robbing the party of a very viable Senate candidate in fucking Georgia.
Strategically, she should for sure run for this one, because she can still mount a pres run if a Democrat doesn’t win in 2020, and if she wins the seat she’ll probably win it a second time in 2022. If she wins that 2022 term, she’d be lined up perfectly for another move in 2028 if a Dem does win and get a second term as Pres (if the Pres has an unelectable Veeo). If she loses the Senate election in 2020, she’ll know she can’t win Senate, but she can still run for Governor in 2022. I think this lines up pretty much perfectly with all potential best case scenarios for her, unless she actually wants to be Veep.
Guess I shouldn’t have grunched, but that is lol because Stacey didn’t say ‘Here’s my statement’, she said ‘Statement from my spokesman’. That’s perfect language for ‘I never said I wasn’t going to run’.
How could she possibly lose a Senate seat in Georgia in a midterm election??? Total slam dunk!
LOL nunnehi!
If people like her enough, she could win in a midterm. You have to look at this not as an electoral strategy but as a Stacey Abrams strategy. I think it seems clear she wants her arc to be president, and Kemp fucked up her arc by cheating his ass off to avoid a runoff. By running for this seat in 2020, she’ll know what the landscape is going to look like if she wins and will be a super important vote in the Senate. If she loses in 2020, she’s for sure going for Kemp again in 2022. If her people tell her she has no chance to win in the real election if she gets the seat in 2020 then she can drop and run for Kemp, as well. I think her goal was always to make a play for pres in 2024 at the earliest and 2028 at the latest, and that would be a lot easier for her as a Senator/Governor. Senate lines up better on years, in my opinion.
I’m gonna pull out the DVR reference here on you when networks continuously ignored those ratings until probably 2015 at the earliest (now it’s all they depend on). You’re looking at conditions on the ground right now for what will happen in 2022. We can’t begin to know what 2022 will look like until 2020 shakes out. If the evil empire retains or (gag) takes back the House too, we’re doomed. If not, you should expect to see a lot of sweeping changes related to voter suppression and the Voting Rights Act being implemented very quickly if the Dems somehow manage to get the Senate. Georgia’s going to turn blue in the not too distant future. Could it be by 2024? I don’t know, but there has to be a good shot at it by 2028.
Hmm, I’ve heard Sally Yates’ name being thrown about for this seat, as well. I guess she’s from GA?
She’d be a good choice too. I can’t find any detailed info on where she lives, but it all suggests she has extensive ties to Atlanta and possibly lives there.
Yates was born in Atlanta, got her undergrad and JD at UGA, and worked her way up in the justice dept mostly in local/regional offices in that area. She prosecuted the Olympic Park bomber. She is currently a partner @ King and Spalding, one of the biggest law firms in Atlanta. So, if she wanted to take the pay cut and run for office, she certainly wouldn’t be a carpet bagger.
Eta wikipedia tells me that her dad was a lawyer and judge in GA, too.
LOLDems forever and ever. They’ll back him all the way through his punting of the Senate seat they sold out to keep, then try to convince us the governor’s mansion is more important. If he punts that seat he’ll basically make a Dem takeover of the Senate in 2020 impossible and all but guarantee a Democratic presidency (if we win) leads to four years of treading water before another deplorable POTUS puts us out of our misery for good.
Meanwhile Abrams won’t run in Georgia and Beto won’t run in Texas? I mean fuck it, let’s just surrender permanent control of the Senate to Mitch, his being such a pleasant fellow who loves democracy so much. We certainly wouldn’t want to put our all into taking it back.
RBG might as well retire now and let King Donald pick her replacement, because Mitch is going to say “LOL no,” when a Dem tries to replace her, and the SCOTUS will sit with 8 justices until President Cotton/Hawley/Gaetz/Kobach takes over.
I’m pretty close to checking out on politics. Rooting for the Washington Fucking Generals is getting pretty old, and knowing that the Schumers and Pelosis of the world are having a nice laugh behind the scenes while throwing the fight for the soul of our country is too fucking frustrating.
Somehow she finds ways to leverage/beat everyone who comes for her power, and the establishment manages to keep a stranglehold on party power, but they can’t get Beto or Abrams to run for the right race, or Manchin to keep his job???
I’m 33. Maybe we can have a functioning, fair democracy with an actual party representing the interests of most Americans again before I die. I’d be thrilled if we had it before I turn 65, but that’s starting to look like a pipe dream.
In the meantime, we’ve got thoughts and prayers and LOLDems.
I’d like to say you are exaggerating…and I get Manchin drives a lot of Dems nuts…
But if gives up his seat to run for governor, fuck it all
It’s just gonna take a President who will just impose what we need to get done. Republicans do it anyway, so time to play hardball.
Like this shit isn’t hard.
McConnell and his wife are super corrupt. Actually have DOJ investigate them and put them in fucking prison.