I’ve already lost like four pounds, I cooked for myself today on the stove for the first time in a long time (veggie stir fry)… I’m already trying to take some joy in the little things like that, just putting some music on and cooking and trying to relax my mind.
As long as I can keep getting fresh food in, I’ll keep eating fresh veggies. If not, I still have healthy vegetarian stuff to go to after that. Plus I’ll be lifting every day in my home gym, and trying to grab some late night walks as long as I think it’s safe. I feel like going out once nobody else is out is safe from a virus standpoint, and now it’s safe from a civil unrest standpoint. We’ll see how it develops.
If this goes for a month, I anticipate losing 15-20 pounds. If it goes 1.5 months, ~23 lbs. Two months, 30-32 lbs.
Little thing like this bring me a little bit of warmth and happiness.
Wow, I learned something basic that I had backwards (the microwave thing). Mom and Dad were wrong about that one too, huh?
Let’s say you have a family of four, two parents and two kids. Normally the kids eat 5 lunches/week at school and parents at work. Some people may pack lunches, but many do not. You also may eat out one dinner a week. If the family is staying home that’s 6 extra meals or 24 extra individual meals/week.
Same for toilet paper.
Also factor in that many people who usually shop 2 or 3 times a week may now want to stock up for a few weeks. Short term demand goes up a lot, long term demand will go up slightly.
Italy new cases may have peaked (fingers crossed). Might be hard to draw a ton of conclusions because they shut down different areas at different times.
But if this holds up and isn’t just a hitch, I’d guess two weeks from lockdown seems like a super rough guess for when you can expect to see a peak in new cases.
Yeah I waited until the 2nd day and of little gain and was surprised to see it even go down.
Let’s just say it looks promising. Also I would think the sample size is so high now that it’s harder for it to have an anomaly that big. But it could also be this slowdown is from the Bergamo lockdown, which happened pretty early iirc. And maybe another spike comes from the other places that weren’t locked down.
I’m trying to figure out how far deaths lag behind cases. It doesn’t seem like much. Maybe a lot of people are showing up at the hospital and dying quickly. Makes sense if you know how bad things are, you or your family would wait until things got to ultra-critical. So if this is real I’d also expect to see the death rate maybe peak in a few days.
If you want to limit your trips outside to once a week or once every two weeks or once a month, you have to massively stock up when you do go.
So many people are going to get sick (or be scared of going out) that there’s a risk (and I have no idea how to quantify it) of having a breakdown somewhere - truck drivers calling out, people who offload it calling out, shelf stockers calling out, retail workers calling out. Plus anything that’s imported is suddenly more complicated. Can we count on getting 100% of the same imports as before? If not, we could have a problem. It’s imperative on the nations of the world not to hoard, too.
There’s a non-zero (and I can’t begin to quantify it but I think it’s ~zero for the next couple weeks then jumps for a month or so then recedes) risk of looting or increased crime, as the police force could take a hit due to sick callouts… so people may want to be careful about going out too much, or may be worried about stores getting looted.
The hoarding effect. When there’s a run on stuff, you either have to join in or be left without. Once there’s a run on some stuff, it increases from there.
I think I’m going to have to amend my no food goes to waste policy to no produce goes to waste. These veggie sausages I bought taste like milk bone dog biscuits.
