I actually think you are both way low. I was thinking about 0.5% myself and I was worried even that might be low.
Those crappy perks for No-Rush Shipping just got a lot better.
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222 new dead today. Seems quite bad.
WHERE ARE THE MOTHER FUCKING GOD DAMN TESTS THAT KOREA FIGURED OUT MONTHS AGO ??
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It isn’t. Washington’s cases are up day over day. They havent yet had a single day where new cases went down and they have had by far the earliest and strictest measures.
To clarify. Washington is flattening the curve. So maybe we agree. But they aren’t flatlining they are still on an upward trajectory albeit much less steep. It’s likely due to them actually taking this seriously+not being as far down the path to ruin as New York.
Other than my Wheel of Fortune story a bit ago I’ve largely avoided engaging in this thread, and not because I don’t appreciate all the effort that has gone into making this one of the best resources for COVID on the internet. This whole saga has just really drilled home the impossibility of achieving leftist policy in this country during my lifetime, and I am struggling with that. I’d like to rant a bit.
It should be crystal clear to everyone in this nation the types of policies that could mitigate this disaster and help us prepare for the next one. Universal healthcare, so people can take care of their health without worrying about the bill. National sick leave, so that people can afford to stay home when they’re sick. Reduced incarceration, because our overcrowded jails are going to be destroyed by this outbreak and any other that comes. Increased funding for public education, so that teachers and schools have the funding they need to weather disruptions like this. Free public college, higher minimum wage, protections for contractors and gig workers, rent control, so that young people aren’t spending the first 10 years of their adult life in the red or working multiple jobs to make ends meet. Humane immigration policies, and on and on and on…
This pandemic should be spurring our country to take a hard look at what we are and change for the better, but instead our politicians (in both parties!) just care about the fucking stock market and “the economy” (aka the almighty corporations that rule us). Instead of coming out of this pandemic wiser and on a path towards a more just society, we’re just going to have piles of dead boomers and the same fucking policies that led us to where we are now. If we’re lucky–lucky!–we will have a senile old racist as president next year who happens to have a D next to his name. People will applaud because we’ve moved past Trump, as if he was ever the fucking problem with this country in the first place.
We are so fucking fucked and it is so goddamn depressing to look ahead at the next few decades that we’re building for ourselves, blindly careening down the tracks a single misstep from disaster for the rest of my fucking life. This should have been an opportunity for change but it’s just solidifying how fucked we are.
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Right. I’m just saying based on when they locked down I thought they’d be like Italy right now.
Their graph is different than NY for sure. So you are on to something. I think its possible they had a much less widespread situation at lockdown than NY. If anything it is proof those things might actually matter.
The old folks home getting hit really early was like a canary in a coal mine.
Yup I really think that is why they are an anomaly. They took it serious much earlier than almost everywhere. There were probably lots of cases everywhere at that point but they weren’t getting caught because of no testing. Absent that nursing home going full Ebola Washington doesn’t catch it until later either.
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My guess is liberals are listening to Fauci and not the orange fish cleaner dude.
wait till they allow by mail but after the post office is privatized first. Oh sorry those ballots from the cities just got lost in the mail, gee what a shame
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I wish we could somehow screen these people still going to church after lockdown orders when they are being admitted at the ER and just fire them straight into the sun. They don’t deserve to receive treatment. Let their god save them.
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And the nursing home convinced people to take it seriously.
SF acted early.
Atlanta and New Orleans acted late.
Cuomo’s one bit mistake wasn’t sending the guard into NYC. DeBlasio was slow and tone deaf. As someone else mentioned the metro area encompasses 3 states and maybe was too big to wrangle but still they went late.
Should be on day 10 on a nationwide 21 day lockdown. We’d be 11 days away and hopefully be spending our testing resources on tracing again as we tried to open back up.
Hopefully the US as a whole can tip but not til after we hit 1,000/day. But regions are going to get hard. The rural south doesn’t stand a chance. It will be in pockets but expect to see many many nursing homes go Boom. Church was still pretty heavily attended even this past weekend.
I think the US will hit in the 100,00-250,000 range (seems like a big range but only 2.5 fold on an exponential is only .25 logs). I agree the real number will be higher due to bad reporting.
I’m counting on people sheltering in place when it gets bad locally regardless of what orange says.
One possibility is that since they were first and took testing more seriously and shut things down right away, they reacted sooner in the curve and thus are doing better. It happening to hit a nursing home and killing people made the reaction faster as well.
By the time it was in Washington, it was likely also in lots of places, we just didn’t know as we don’t test. So Atlanta, NYC, Louisiana and other places are behind Washington and SF in when they shut things down.
Another possibility is Washington is still bad, they just aren’t testing as much so it looks like it’s flattening.
There are other possibilities as well, but it’s way too early to say we won’t get overwhelmed anywhere. We initially were thinking early May for mass deaths, now it looks like late March for getting overwhelmed so early April for mass deaths, so the situation is dire and not at all rosy or comforting.
Sounds like we can all get it by Thursday if we order in the next 1 hr and 32 minutes.
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Per the covid tracker site linked a bit earlier today, WA’s testing is pretty respectable. I think it hitting a nursing home was pretty key: the people there may have been symptomatic earlier, and also they aren’t the type to spread it themselves. CA just went from like zero to shelter in place in the span of, what, 3 days? It was taken super seriously and on WA’s timeline. NY, I wonder if some of their first cases were younger people who spread it to other younger people who all got mild or asymptomatic cases.