SARS-CoV-2: Electric Superflu

fewer people get it with a lockdown, or maybe not a lockdown that people disobey, but when social distancing is followed

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Fitness classes still fairly booked in Long Beach/LA. Went yesterday. They’ve been giving alcohol wipes at the door and between each station (treadmill, rower, dumbbells). Don’t really touch or come into contact with anyone during the workouts. They used to say give your neighbor a high five/fist bump after a challenging section, but that’s been changed to head nods/air fives.

Jeezes…you guys are so, so fucked.

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Something I thought about while not sleeping tonight - for bartenders and servers is are their unemployment benefits based on their bullshit paychecks? Ugh

Do we do stock market developments here? In the Netherlands the market flatlined on Friday and is now down another 7.5%. So brace for impact on the Dow Jones I guess. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s getting the worst day ever, after the bubble Trump blew in it on Friday.

personal finance thread

is where the financebros are at…

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There’s another thread for finance derails because they inevitably end up with people rubbing theur hands in glee at how they can profit from this horror show.

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There’s a two speed situation going on here where the big eastern cities (Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne) are pretty clearly entering an escalation, while SA is yet to record any cases of community transmission and I think it’s the same story in WA. Tasmania doing OK as well. NT zero cases. I think things will progess at different speeds in different cities.

Frankly, I don’t take opinions from anyone other than expert epidemiologists very seriously, as I think I’m better informed on this thing than just about anyone. That said, things getting REALLY BAD in say, Sydney, in the next 1-2 weeks is very much in the range of possibilities. I just don’t think anyone can say for sure what’s going to happen.

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Understood. I’ll leave it up as it is followed immediately by the link to the relevant discussion. If mods think it can better be deleted: feel free to do so!

Absolutely. But people don’t operate fully rationally.

The logic part of my brain has understood the situation for months. Now the emotional part of my brain has fully caught up, based on a “I trust this guy. This guy is shook. You should be shook” reptile brain heuristic.

I’m calling my dad tomorrow morning and putting him into full shut down mode.

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Yeah I spoke to my parents a few days ago and prepped them, as soon as there’s the first community transmission here I’ll tell them they need to be isolating.

I’m most shook about the economic fallout from this, a demand shock of this size has to be fairly unprecedented. Really don’t know what is going to happen. (Please don’t create a financebro derail by taking this up as a discussion, just thought I’d record it for posterity).

Grunching this AM. Woke up wondering how many cases there may be.

Growth rate=0.285/d
Doubling Time=2.43 days

(Taken from the charts showing the most rapid increase at 33% per day)

For each individual case that works out a theoretical number of cases.

30 days=5,167
40 days=89,322
50 days=1.5 million
55 days=6.4 million (this Jan 21 the day Kirkland first reported a case)

Recognize that mitigation (quarantines/social distancing) in hard hit regions may have slowed the spread before it hit this point.

We don’t have enough deaths yet to support millions, though I’m unsure what is the lag between onset and mortality. There may also be some random factor if when it hits a vulnerable population hard (eg Kirkland).

The formula is X=Xoe^ut

Xo= starting cases, I used 1 per infection locale
X=number of cases now
u=growth rate (0.285/day)
t=number of days

In excel it looks like
=Xo*EXP((u)*t)

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Spoiler: it’s because people are stupid

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… our bowels.

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There was a chart posted yesterday in the old thread showing a sharp increase in flu deaths in NYC in late Feb/early March. Seems likely to be happening everywhere. People are dying, we just aren’t counting them

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the dr was a women. pretty sure.

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Just had a thought: in future years “Contagion” will be looked at as a sort of example of pristine art, the last time it was possible to make a film about a modern pandemic before COVID-19 happened. Everything that comes after this date will be influenced by the real events that we’re living through. 9/11 is the last time I had this sense of a turning point of history, a moment where the world will forever be divided into pre-COVID and post-COVID thinking.

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Deaths or hospital admissions for the flu? I think it was admissions.

I think you’re right, my mistake

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apparently he has been interested in this thing for months and following it closely and working with experts all along. I dont know why either. I agree he has been way ahead of the curve.