538: 90/10, a record high for the cycle.
Economist: 96/4, a record high for the cycle
JHK forecast (what powers the 270 to win model), 90/10, a record high for the cycle;
Cook Political Report: 290 likely/lean Biden to 125 likely/Lean Trump with 123 tossup;
Predictit: 50/50!!
They have a bigger pool of nonvoters to grab than dems (except in the south). I figure heās probably winning if their projected turnout on election day hits and dems in the cities does not.
Jaboukie did that with the gun girl and at least one more time and got his account back both times.
Lol. Hope Nate adds that to the model
Honestly I consider it my civic duty to peel as much idiocracy money as I can off of Predictit. These racist Qanon motherfuckers need to be separated from their wallets with whatever frequency is necessary either to overwhelm them with cognitive dissonance or to make them file bankruptcy alongside Dear Leader.
I never felt great about taking money from gambling addicts on Pokerstars in 2009. I feel fucking awesome about sharking money from society-destroying morons on Predictit.
I mean, really? Iām 40 years old. Since i was old enough to understand politics the one central tenet of political science regarding democrats is that there are far far more democrats than republicans and republicans win because of apathy and low turnout. Now youāre arguing that is wrong, and actually, there were more republicans all along, and that somehow Donald Fuckign Trump has activated this āsilent majority?ā I do not buy it. I do not buy it and I reject it. He is not winning tomorrow.
Edit: And Iām sorry, but there just are not that many fuckign people living in the rurals. There arenāt.
Ptsd
Trump can win 2016 nonvoters who are pissed off about lockdowns and people who are checked out enough that they didnāt realize that they could have voted for someone as racist and stupid as they are.
Biden should pick up people who DGAF about politics but donāt want their parents to die and āboth sides are the sameā nonvoters who just want Trump to go away.
Rasmussen has Biden +3 in the tipping point state. Rasmussen. If Rasmussen is right, Biden is the next President.
2/3 of America hasnāt completed college, so by nature, arenāt there more Trump voters out there to turn out?
I can play this game too. There are women than men. So by nature, arenāt there more Biden voters there to turn out?
You also forgot minorities.
The best thing about living in Australia is that right now I am getting drunk in a bar waiting to watch the Melbourne Cup. After that more drinks and possibly strippers and then hopefully when I wake up tomorrow we are close to having an outcome.
FUCK YOU AND YOUR KANGAROOS AND YOUR COMPETENT COVID RESPONSE
lucky bastard
Seriously fuck the Amy Barret meme. Iām with whoever suggested banning her from the forum the other day. She will be fucking us over for literal decades to come and seeing her smug face only serves as a painful reminder of how fucked the supreme court is.
Bullshit. Iāve got a stock of Biden ice cream pics that are definitely getting used if he wins.
Iāve gotten about five or six texts from Dems checking to see if I voted, each one thinking Iām someone named Amanda. Each time Iāve told them their list is wrong and that is not my name, Iām a guy and have a guy name. Each person has said oh, thanks, weāll fix that. This afternoon I got a call from someone who asked Amanda if Iād voted.
Similarly, Iāve told the dem poll watch organizers I wouldnāt be able to do it this year, and Iāve gotten three calls since assuming I was. Just tonight I got a text from someone who told me she was the outside poll watcher at the location where I was inside poll watcher. Itās a total clusterfuck.
Iād volunteered last week to make calls to help people cure ballots. After receiving two emails telling me there would be a zoom call to go over the logistics and to look for the invite, two days later I got a message saying the effort was getting rolled into the Biden campaign and that they would reach out. No one ever did.
I know other people have had different experiences, but my limited experience working with Dem campaigns has basically been constantly interacting with a ton of overly enthusiastic people or over self-important people who arenāt actually effective at getting anything done.
