This.
Schumer is up in 2022 and AOC will be 33 years old. It will be interesting to see how “conservative” he behaves if Biden wins and Dems take the senate. I could see him being more progressive in light of a potential AOC run.
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The guest in this podcast notes that there isn’t usually a long period of “tit for tat” when a realignment takes place.
Rather, there is a more fundamental reorganization that renders old battles somewhat moot. I don’t think the dems need to worry about republican retaliation if the dems win and go ham, because there won’t be anything too much like the 2020 GOP in 2030.
Hell, the second TX flips, the GOP will be screaming bloody murder to abolish the electoral college. If Biden wins and the dems take the senate, shits gonna get kinda wild for the next 5 years. (That said, I am skeptical that the dems will eliminate the filibuster if they don’t get like 54 senate seats, which is unlikely.)
I think you’re projecting the current stay of play out to far and that a Biden and senate win will alter the state of play significantly. Dems already have a money advantage and will have a more favorable census and state legislative/redistricting situation than they had in 2010, which was a disaster.
The noncollege whites that support Trump will die of old age, lose interest in politics, or OD/suicide, while a generation of college educated, particularly women, has been radicalized and will continue to push the dem agenda. Trump was the steroid/adderall boost the GOP needed in 2016, but the party is going to crash like a mofo. Hell, they know that or they wouldn’t potentially sacrifice 1-2 senate seats for a supreme court seat.
As a non-US citizen I am extremely dubious that a Biden government will do anything exceptional to change the status quo. He seems to be such a moderate choice that there is no chance any real change will occur. I pretty much lost all hope when Bernie wasn’t chosen. Pretty much just expect more of the same. Looking after corporations, the very rich and to a lesser extent the middle class.
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Obv, the hope is they make changes on voting rights and the supreme court. Nobody expects them to help people, but out of pure self interest make it easier to elect dems and eventually hopefully progressives.
Even massive centrist Pete was pushing this hard AF, and the dem leadership seems to realize its do or die. If they don’t fix these things its very likely they get locked out of power next time republicans take over for the foreseeable future. But if they fix these things Republican equity plummets, and in 8-12 years is in the toilet.
The progressive movement will only continue to grow and push them left until they take over. We just need to make sure we still have a democracy then.
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I hope you’re right of course. Covid is the biggest structural advantage that UBI advocates have had for a long time. In the spirit of never wasting a good crisis, progressives should be using the short term crisis to ram through monthly cheques direct to citizens and then when we have a vaccine tell people “Golly, you sure seem to be enjoying those monthly government cheques, how would you feel about continuing to receive them and we’ll tax rich people more?”
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x-post from potus bowl thread. Landslide definitely coming in CA.
I hardly think he’s in a situation where he’s going to give an honest answer here to the court packing question.
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Biden’s answer during the primaries was basically “fuck no I’m not packing the court”, so it’s a step in the right direction.
I see this much more of a sign that he’s open to it. Saying that he’s “not a fan” is the best way to couch it. “It’s a regrettable but necessary step.” There’s no way he can just come right out and be like “(slaps roof of car) you can fit so many ultra liberal judicial activists into this bad boy”
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I won’t pretend to know his underlying motives, but this may be the strategically-correct move if it’s a deliberate one. Say this now so that the issue doesn’t overshadow Trump’s monstrosities leading up to the election. Post-election, move forward with “Well, I’m not a fan of court-packing under normal circumstances, but if the GOP insists on stealing seats that side against the majority of Americans then we have to take action to preserve our democracy.”
ETA: Ponied. Damnit.
I suspect his ultimate support depends on the senate composition.
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People keep saying the GOP wants to abolish the electoral college when TX flips but the GOP has won the pop vote what once since 1988? They can’t.
I have some faith that Biden at least won’t stand in the way of Congress doing the right thing, but I have no faith in Chuck and Nancy.
It’s a shorter political trip to winning the popular vote than it is to flipping Texas back once the state government is run by the other party…
Honestly I’ve been expecting the GOP to lose viability at the national level for quite a while. A landslide that gives a bunch of people a really positive experience from voting is probably the end of the current iteration.
There might be a reason that 2016-2020’s vibe was very definitely ‘going out of business sale at the Halloween popup store’ over there. Just look what they are doing with ACB right now. These are not people with high hopes for the future.
Let’s be real this isn’t Donald Trump’s first bust-out.
of course they can. they wouldn’t need a massive shift in messaging to get a huge chunk of (eg) the latino vote. The problem is they don’t want to change. If they have no alternative, though, they will.
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based on a few minutes of fiddling around with 270 to win it’s easier for GOP to win the EC without TX than the pop vote.
In that they are both impossible given the current demographics of the country? No matter what they’re going to get pretty close to a full blown rebrand within the next cycle or two or there’s no possible system they could win in. They just aren’t popular enough to be viable with anything resembling a fair election.
I think it’s easier to target the majority of voters with broadly popular policies than it is to figure out how to squeeze what’s left of the EC after they lose Texas.
What road did you have where they’d be viable without Texas? Also in what world do they lose Texas but hold FL?
In what world do they lose California, New York and Illinois overwhelmingly as well as Texas by a little bit but also manage to win the popular vote?
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