I guess it might depend on if he gets to practice ahead of time. But 12 strokes is a lot, unless this guy has absolutely no coordination.
LATB changed their YouTube name to Big Bet Poker Live?
I’d easily take over 220 for someone who has never played golf before. If there are holes where you have to carry water, it could be super ugly.
Obviously if he gets to practice before hand it drastically changes the odds.
I could see him taking a few whiffs at the ball too if he has never played before. 220 is a lot of strokes tho. I feel like this is the kind of thing where when you see him take a couple of shots you’ll know if the bet is good or not.
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Keep in mind, the max pushups Allen can do is one.
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no chance unless he gets to practice first, the amount of whiffs/dead shanks are going to add up quickly. someone with an athletic background could do it relatively easily though.
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I once played a round at Riverwalk in San Diego with a poker player who bought his first set of clubs and was unwrapping them from the plastic as they needed to use them, who was betting $100/hole with an o/u of 11 on a par 5 and still going over, and I think ended up shooting around 160. But this person wasn’t Kessler and had at least played before and swung a club.
If you took Allen Kessler to a driving range and let him hit 100 golf balls, what’s the line for his longest drive?
This is where I am too.
I’ve never golfed and could easily see myself getting 30 on a single hole.
167.5
If he has to play 100% legit I don’t see anyway he shoots less than 220 assuming he gets no practice. Like others have said he will have 3-4 total wiffs and several other total shanks per hole.
This also assumes he doesn’t get a caddy.
That said I generally believe the adage that if someone wants to bet they can do something they can do it.
Interesting question is what number do you need to bet the other side?
Feels like around 250
there are ways he can mitigate his inexperience even without practice. I’d tell him to take nothing more than a half swing. He’s not going to get much distance, but it’s going to cut way cut way down on shanks and taking strokes where he’s not getting closer to the hole.
For example, if he’s playing a 200 yard par 3, he can average 20 yards a stroke, take 10 shots to make the green and still have 2 strokes to make a putt while staying on pace to win the bet. You can have him choke up on a 5 iron and basically putt the ball 20 yards, realistically he’s probably going to be able to get a lot more distance that way without risking shanks or whiffs. He’s going to gain a ton of extra strokes on par threes.
Sure - that strategy could help, but you’re ignoring all the things that can go wrong. As I mentioned, if he has to say carry 50 yards of water on a hole, that could easily be 10+ strokes if it takes him 5 times to make it.
Or say he gets in a tough bunker, someone that has never hit out of sand before it likely to struggle getting out (and probably going to eat a few penalty strokes).
Agree I think the course matter so much here. Lots of water or bunkers and it’s nearly impossible I think.
yep the difference between a muni thats just a flat piece of land with holes in the ground and a real course with long rough, bunkers, fast sloping greens and tee shots that require carries is going to be well over 100 shots.
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A single hole requiring a water carry could easily take 30+ shots when you have to count all penalties.
Can’t he just take a drop on the other side?
Disclaimer: all my golf knowledge comes from the greatest sports movie ever, Tin Cup.
Nope - you can drop up to the water. Some holes have special drop zones, but they are still not on the other side of the water.
In Tin Cup it wasn’t that he could have dropped on the other side of the water, it’s that he could have dropped in a spot where it would have been like 30 yards to carry the water rather than 200+. You can also choose to drop where you took your last shot, which is what he was doing.