Dude called his own shot. He’s destined to win the main. ;)
Then I want my chance at bracelets. I guess my argument applies more to the guys just coming out of college.
I’ll take 10 bracelets and no fame over 1, but somehow famous. I dreamed of winning bracelets when I first got into poker, just like I dreamed of winning a World Series for the Phillies and a Super Bowl for the Eagles when I was a kid in the backyard.
I’m confident I can get there on my own eventually, largely because I’m confident I can avoid lifestyle inflation until I do. Well, until I get to my number where I get my base of solitude, which is way lower than $10M.
This is crazy given your age no offense.
Only a 20 year old Fedor could reasonably say this seriously.
I’m not talking about $10M in tournament poker earnings. I’m talking about $10M in net worth. If I put all the tournament winnings from my run a couple weeks ago ($136K) in the S&P, along with my current retirement accounts ($95Kish), and add $25K a year, at 12% per year that gets me to $4M in 20 years and $10M in 27-28 years. So the market would only need to run a little hot. But I also think I can beat the market until I get to a net worth in that ballpark. At 20% per year I can do it in 18 years.
That all ignores that I’m currently the only income in my household, and in a few years my girlfriend will be making good money too. Then we can put away a lot more between us, and the target numbers stay the same.
So you’re going to give up 10 mega now so you can grind it out for 28 years? Guess how much that 10 mega now could turn into. Also, I thought 99 percent of your recent winnings were going back into your poker bankroll?
Yeah by that math if $200k turns into $10M in 28 years, then $10M now turns into $500M on the same timeframe.
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The second part is how I know of so, so many pros who went broke.
Win a tournament? Oh, thats easy now I have a mill.
Bitcoin always goes up, now I have 10 mill.
??
Not profit.
I am confident I can retire in 10-15 years and hopeful I can do it in 5, but I’d still probably play 10-15 hours a week. I’d just play a fun private game and then tourneys I care about - WSOP mostly.
Financially getting to like $4M makes a big difference in my happiness/comfort/lack of worrying. I can’t imagine wanting more toys or fun than another few million above that would buy. So what the $10M could turn into doesn’t matter as much to me.
I don’t think I have edge investing that much, so I’d expect market returns from there and given the diminishing utility of the potential gains to me, I’d be pretty cautious.
With 10mm in the bank earning for you now just imagine all the things you could so with your free time while you’re still young that you might not be able to do later in life due to ill health etc.
Preferring to spend that time studying a card game and playing in the company of anti-social brats would be a very poor life choice.
Gonna have to bring this one out of retirement
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Not taking 10 million to try and work your way to eventually having 10 million seems like such a long way about the problem.
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10M is 10M, but a couple decades of grinding poker on a 150k BR could be anything, it could even be 10M.
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Yeah what in the hell is happening in here
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In this case it’d be not taking $10 million to give up on one of my dreams/passions (winning bracelets) while working my way to eventually having $10M.
Yeah, I’m playing a mix of 5/T, 5/T/20, and T/25 now. Some will be in private games. So apply whatever hourly you guys think is reasonable for an average of a $20 BB, say 30 hours a week, say 40 weeks a year (not counting the WSOP and a few weeks off spread around). And I will live off $50-60K, so I’ll either be able to move up fast if bigger games remain available, or put a lot away for a few years before my lifestyle gets more expensive.
In a discussion in the golf thread over guys taking huge bags of money and giving up the chance to win majors, I made a comment that I would turn down $10M to never get to play WSOP events again, but not $100M. Although if it came from blood money, I’d hope I’d have the morality to turn it down but who knows until you’re in that spot.
I also mentioned having the expectation to eventually get to a $10M net worth anyway.
This discussion ensued and was moved here.
Your work ethic and recent results have been very impressive. Keep at it I’m sure you’ll achieve big things and get a couple WSOP bracelets along the way.