I’m not talking about $10M in tournament poker earnings. I’m talking about $10M in net worth. If I put all the tournament winnings from my run a couple weeks ago ($136K) in the S&P, along with my current retirement accounts ($95Kish), and add $25K a year, at 12% per year that gets me to $4M in 20 years and $10M in 27-28 years. So the market would only need to run a little hot. But I also think I can beat the market until I get to a net worth in that ballpark. At 20% per year I can do it in 18 years.
That all ignores that I’m currently the only income in my household, and in a few years my girlfriend will be making good money too. Then we can put away a lot more between us, and the target numbers stay the same.