I’ve had a Royal over AAAA on Stars.
I have a screenshot somewhere.
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Last 3 MTTs:
$33 - 2/90 for ~$600 ($300 in overlay)
$5 - 2/150 for ~$120
$33 - 7/110 for ~$130
Also have monied in 6 of my last 10 $5
One of the sickest heaters I’ve ever been on. Or, I’m actually this good and need to quit my job. One of the two.
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I had a $2k+ cash for like 6 out of 7 weekends playing ~$150 live MTTs in LA - including a chop for $7400 at the Gardens. I was starting to think 200% ROI was conservative.
Then I then went 40 buyins with one min-cash. My live MTT career has thankfully been put on pause by covid.
MTTs are a fucking bitch. Live RNG is extra-rigged obv. Lacky on 2p2 played online MTTs for a living. His record is 86 tourneys w/o a cash.
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86 … :: drops cereal on the floor :: tourneys without a cash!
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Yeah when he said that I thought, well those must have been tougher than my $150 live MTTs (I know he’s a solid player). Until I hit my streak. Now I can see it happening for sure. Especially because he probably played 10s of 1000s of MTTs.
hot damn.
I min cashed a $5 today on ignition. Got QQ as we were nearing the bubble, raised 3X BB, called in 2 spots, jammed an 8 high flop and got snap called by 86o which hit the 6 on the river. I was holding a baseball at the time and am proud that I was able to not throw it through a wall.
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I figure it’s very roughly 1 in 6 to make the money in a soft MTT - assuming top 10% pay, and you’re not just playing to make the money but to maximize $EV.
So run some sims on average longest streak not rolling a 6 over 10k dice rolls.
The tourneys on carbon pay out 20%, and the field is much softer. I think they’ve actually gotten worse in the last couple of weeks.
Second hand of the $33. Starting stacks of 166bb. Folded to me in the SB with QQ and I raise 3.5bb.
Guy jams with 55.
Deep in the $33 last night, I think after late reg but before the money, a guy shoved for like 3-BB. Folded to BB who mucked getting like 3-1. I said to myself “well that wasn’t a great fold.”
Twenty minutes later same guy shoves for 2bb, and it’s folded to a completely different BB who folds getting like 6-1. This is a $33 online tournament! The short stack was second in chips when I busted in 7th. He was one of the very few I thought had a clue.
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I don’t know about 10000 rolls, but for 600 MTTs where you’re 1/6 to money you should expect a losing run of 36.
But it’s not the long losing runs that kill your bank and your will to live, it’s the downswings, and you should expect a downswing of 56 losing MTTs every 600.
Never bet on games where you’re much less than 25% imo. Said after many years betting on horse racing systems with strike rates between 12% (lol) and 30%.
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Thanks for the sanity check, this was helpful.
I had to read this 3 times before I realized what thread I was in and that it wasn’t about covid.
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Lol I thought I play one of the final flights of the opener but just went on to check if day 2 plays till the end or breaks at some point. Playing to the end and probably 3000 players still in I dont think it will finish early enough to get some sleep and go to work afterwards. So that plan is crushed. Probably not a series aimed at casuals who have a regular day job(and i have late shift the next week If I had to be there at 7am it would be totally impossible). Not sure what these organizers think where the free money is coming from. 
Is there a big Ignition tourney worth playing today?
very strange guarantees in this current series. a $250 100k gtd? odd. i’ll hold off to see how much interest that one gets.
the 4pm $162 250k is a must play
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May as well fire a bullet. They’re literally giving money away at 6max PLO
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SMPO Special?
Yeah. I got a satellite seat into it so might take 2 shots at it today
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I think I’ll just late reg after I go to the driving range. Do these things usually get an overlay? Didn’t see many entries before I logged off earlier.
Naw, I think they usually hit around 2k entries
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