Having thought about it some, I think my hang up with a hand like AQ43ds is that playing it against me is a mistake and I have a tendency to give my opponents too much credit and end up too balanced when there are exploitative lines that I can take which are much more EV. So, I end up being a solid winner, but I won’t ever be the biggest winner in a large player pool.
I never went through that phase of over-aggression where bet-bet-bet would take down a lot of pots and you need to learn to tighten up and be more selective about when to be aggressive to reach your potential. It’s a lot harder to get to an elite level when what you need to work on is loosening up and being more aggressive.
Club tourney last night. 47 runners. I literally played one hand out of the blinds (and chopped it) until we were down to 18 and I came in 4th. People are bad at poker
Okay. Here’s one of the last notable hands I played a while ago. 1/2. Saturday afternoon. I have like $900. It’s the Villian’s 5th hand. They bought in for the full $500 and are up to about $700 after getting AA and winning their first hand in standard fashion. I didn’t recognize him but another reg at the table knew him by name as did the dealer. (I guess I’m a reg too since I’m on a 1st name basis with lots of dealers but strictly a Saturday morning-night player in the winter time when the weather sucks here).
Villain UTG makes it $10
I’m UTG+2 and make it $40 with AQdd
I was literally the only person at the table making 3 bets for the last 3 hours so I was assured I’d only get raised by AA/KK. No one was going to call the 3 bet besides the new guy who did call.
Flop: 9d 10d Kc ($76)
He checks and I bet $50.
He thinks for 20 seconds and calls.
Turn: Kd ($176)
He quickly checked again. So I check. This is a mistake, right?
R: Jc ($176)
He checks again. At this point I think/know I have the best hand. At 1/2 people don’t trap on the river. I make a smallish bet of $80. He thinks for 30 seconds and makes it $350ish (might have been $380). Also at 1/2, when they bet they have it…
My thoughts are that he if has 99/1010 I hear from him sooner? He doesn’t raise AQ or QJ on this river though, right? I can discount a regular raising Kx UTG preflop, right? Maybe I let him get there with JJ?
At 1/2, I’m inclined to say it’s usually a bluff or a boat…and live 1/2 players almost never check-raise bluff. Anyways, you block the hands most likely to bluff (flush draws). Your opponent is unlikely to be sophisticated enough to turn a straight into a bluff, so if you get shown a bluff, it should be something like 87s. Maybe T9s.
You are probably more likely to see an idiot overvaluing a hand like AK than someone bluffing in this spot.
Also, a lot of LLSNL regs slow-play too much. TT/99 wouldn’t shock me. I would not discount those hands at all. KJ or KTs seem more likely.
I’m used to playing against players where bet/fold the river is the correct play in this spot, with bet-sizing targeting hands like AK or KQ. There are parts of the country where that might not be the correct play against an unknown reg.
I just have a hard time figuring out non-boat hands in this player’s range. If they do have non-boat hands, then they are probably going to dump their chips back eventually and I don’t need to win this pot to get my fair share. Even if you can’t figure out too many full houses in his range, what worse hands would you give him to make a call correct?
And this is why I prefer live cash games. The bozo is going to give it back eventually and you will get your fair share, but in tournaments he’s going to knock you out and give it to someone else, with a slight chance he luckboxes his way to significant cash.
