Poker Hands and Strategy

No one ever 3-bets in these w/o QQ-AA.

(Aside: I try to 3-bet light every now and then but they always call. As a general rule to most players a hand worth limping or raising is always worth calling a raise or 3-bet for less than 20% of their stack. Then I wind up in a big scary pot when I feel like there’s easier ways to get chips. I’m not sure it’s worth it when they almost never fold pre. Only when it gets late and you can 3-bet shove do they actually fold. Which is funny because my range is sooooo much wider in that spot.)

He had JJ. I don’t know if the club on the turn scared him or if he was still hoping I’d bet. I agree he shows up with a crappier T a lot here.

I didn’t want to put this in the post because it would be obvious why I was including it, but he did think for an extra 15 seconds or so before calling prefop from the SB. I don’t put a ton of stock in that because you see them agonize over it then fold all the time. But it might have been why I checked the turn and was happy to check it down. Something in my spidey sense gave me a bad feeling.

Most places are still like this. The $100 crowd isn’t that different from the $1100 crowd and the vast majority are playing both tournaments the exact same way.

Like I played a $400 turbo the day after I busted the $1100 last week. Shoved 4s utg for ~11 bb. Got folds from AK and 10s, who both have me covered. Just insane what you see in live poker.

Idk overbets like that usually represent the nuts afaic, should’ve bet the turn and probably fold the river. I’d raise KJs or ATs there, KTs is right on the margin.

Raising is fine, cbetting splits should probably be like 30% bet 1/3 pot, 70% check. River it really looks like they have 66 or JJ, but when its JJ you get to laugh inside and know villain is fucking terrible.

People get insanely tight near the bubble. No one wants to play all that time and go home empty handed.

Then they all want to chop as soon as it’s the money or FT - whichever comes first. It’s literal ICM.

If I have a clear and away CL I’ll ask for close to first. Otherwise I usually go along with a straight chip chop even though I have an edge. I’m not going to be the only one at the table to say no.

Plus you see the same people and I don’t want them to start thinking about how anyone could possibly have an edge at 10-20BB poker. They have no idea how to shove properly.

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A few stories here.
First, my 44 shove was nowhere near the money.

~4ish years ago we had a 16 way chop in our local $300 bounty tournament.
For my biggest ever live score, when we had ~30ish people left and were on the bubble, every player at my table was below average chip stack. I won every pot for the next 45 minutes, got AA and KK at convenient times when we got down to 2 tables and took the tournament down.
My buddy who has a couple of 7 figure scores has just ramped up all aggression near the FT bubble during his big wins. You get such insane spots at this point.

Yeah if you can get that stack - even 1.5x everyone else they just tighten up. It never occurs to them that yes you cover them, but they could also seriously cripple you. They only see the fear going one way.

I love it when the game gets like that and it’s all psychology. That’s why I think 27 down to 9 in the WSOP is the best poker of the year. The difference between a nice score and life-changing money and your name forever on the final table. Maximum sphincter.

A couple hands from the $80+$60a tonight.

#1 - 3rd hand - blinds 100/100. One limper, hero gets AhQh in the CO, makes it 500 - both blinds and limper call.

Flop QdJh6d - checks to hero who bets 3/4 pot, blinds call, limper folds.

Turn 7h - old guy in SB leads for close to pot, youngish Asian guy in BB shoves, hero has to call here right even knowing old guy is never folding?

#2 - 23 players left - top 15 play - I have one of the larger stacks at the table (but still only like 16 BBs). But I have a fairly loose aggro older Russian reg to my left and a big stack with 220k next to him who just got to the table so no real reads.

A couple orbits previous I got a walk to the SB, raised 2.5BBs with K6o, Russian guy shoved, for about half my stack, then showed J2o when I folded.

It’s tight time when the smaller stacks are just trying to make the money and you can steal with impunity - but the Russian guy and big stack are cramping my style.

So it folds again to the SB, I raise 2.5BBs at 4000/8000+8000a with J3o - thinking maybe he’ll take me seriously this time and fold at least bottom 50% of hands. He thinks for a while then calls.

Flop KJ6 two diamonds. Hero checks to induce a bluff. Villain shoves and has me barely covered. If I fold I will have about 130k left - with blinds about to go up to 5000/10000+10000a. I feel like he reshoves a lot of Ks pre - so I can narrow his range to something like between 50% and top 10%. I don’t know if he shoves ATC once I check the flop but I bet it’s close.

Doubling my stack and getting this guy out of the way would massively improve my chances to chip up during tight-sphincter time. I’d have the big stack covered and hopefully be able to pick on him. Also I’m at table 1 which they never break - but I could always get moved.

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Need starting stack for first hand. Instacalling hand 2. Probably not raising pre in that spot to start with though, that “maybe this time I’ll get respect” reasoning doesn’t work out ime.

In general raising without shoving in the sb with a stack of like 12-20 blinds is problematic when you’re opening the action, you can get put in a bunch of tough spots. A strategy of all limping, all shoving, or a mixed strategy of shoving and limping is preferable at that stack size imo.

As played hand 2 is a snap call.

12k - I think maybe I bet 1200 on the flop. So pot was 5600 by the turn. SB led for like 4000 then BB shoved.

Yeah I probably should have shoved. Didn’t realize we were under 20BBs.

I probably need to run the math on 18BBs (145k) with J3o vs. a wider than normal calling range (22+, A8+, A5s+, KJs+). Of course I’m up against the only guy left in the tourney who DGAF about busting this close to the bubble.

What tool do the kids use for ICM these days?

Edit: found ICMizer. Looks like with that range (which is tighter than NE) - ATC is a shove, good to know

Poker is hard again. In all these tournies, no matter how insane you run early - there’s that one $1000 hand that you have to win. That one damn hand is like half your tourney equity.

After that you can coast to the final table where everyone wants to chip-chop, and I’ll go along unless I have a dominating stack. I’m not going to be a dick for my slight edge that might not even exist once they see I’m shoving garbage in ATC spots and might call me light after that. I’m starting to see about 80% of the same faces in these. I’m fine with preserving my edge in knowing how to shove properly for the bubble and not trying to push it at the FT.

I did snapcall the J3o hand - glad that was confirmed here. He had T9dd for a flush draw + gutshot - which does not confirm my read he’s shoving his whole range on the flop. But I still think he probably was.

It sucks that the tourney had to come to that when if I had any other villain to my left I could have comfortably chipped up w/o much risk. Early in that one was the best I’ve ever run in a live tourney - and all for nothing. Which obviously is part of the game. I could have played more passively and limped into the money. But I was playing for 3rd place money or better.

Old guy in hand #1 had Q7o and it held. Asian guy had a worse flush draw. Later on I flopped a set vs. the old guy, and had an awkward spot where he led 5k into the wet flop. I was afraid a shove might scare him off but I didn’t want to price in draws either. So I made it 20k for 3/5 of his stack or something. He called.

I shoved a mostly blank turn and watched as he did the disgusted thing and thought forever - turning up his cards on their edge at one point where I could see he had AKs for a gutshot and nut flush draw. I swear I thought he was going to fold getting like 8-1, but he finally called and miraculously I held. Just to give you an idea of the level of play in these things.

The check/call flop, lead turn line is usually one of two hands. It is sometimes a slowplayed hand that doesn’t want to give a free turn card. Maybe a set is willing to slowplay against a possible flush or straight draw but gets freaked out by two possible flush draws. Or it is a hand that was improved by the turn. Sometimes, it is a hand that picked up a heart draw. Since you have the Qh, you block top pair picking up a flush draw, so Q7 is the most likely hand.

If it is a shove, it is sometimes a player that has something like middle pair and has decided that since he is calling a turn bet, he might as well go all in.

I tend to be very suspicious when a passive player (which I assume the old guy is) shows aggression, especially when they don’t have the initiative in the hand. It usually means they can beat any one-pair hand unless it’s a flop all-in.

Oh yeah had a big discussion at my table about how the moon landing is fake, and got told I’m insane for going to Honduras by a guy who’s never been south of the US border but is still 100% sure you die instantly “just like everywhere in South America”.

So how’d you make it outta there?

Where - Honduras or the poker table?

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Final table - 7 handed - blinds 15k/30k + 15k ante. I have 400k chips for 2nd biggest stack. CL to my left has 800k. There’s one micro stack and everyone else has between 150k and 300k.

Micro stack shoves his 20k in. I call 30k with QTo from the CO. Button who is chipleader calls, both blinds call.

Main pot 115k, side pot 40k

Flop QT6 rainbow. Blinds check to me.

I decide to check because 1) button had seemed pretty aggressive when any pot was checked to him and b) because I suck at live poker and thought the side pot was huge and the main pot was tiny - instead of the other way around. So I assumed there would be fighting over the side pot.

Button checks,

Turn Jc putting two clubs on the board.

Blinds check to me. I bet 75k. Button instantly and casually slides in a big enough stack of 25k chips to put me all in. 5th place pays $340. Everyone is playing way too tight and very straightforward post flop. Even with 300k chips left in my stack I should be able to coast to a $1000-ish payout.

The thing is I’d never seen button actually show down crap. And a couple hours earlier I shoved my 12BB stack over his button raise. He thought for a while then folded AJs face up. So clearly the dude a) is tight and b) thinks I am tight.

I know this feels like a snap call. But does he really want to get all in w/o the nuts with the only stack that can hurt him? Also on a shorty all in situation where he’s going to turn up his cards anyway?

What does he do with JT? If there are hands he has that you can think of that you have beat that are value betting then you have to call. And OK he’s not straight up bluffing but what would he do with a pair and a flush draw or a pair and a straight draw?

Does it? It feels like an instafold to me. OK, maybe he has JT, but even there, maybe he bets flop. Hard to think of other hands we’re beating.

Checking flop is criminal, but hey.

Edit: Like super often he just has like K9 or 98 here, there are a million combos of those hands and they make perfect sense. I’m not going to credit some guy with a bluff shove when there’s an allin player and two players behind. He has a hand the vast majority of the time and unless it’s JT, QT is no good.