I just searched zillow in Irvine with no filters. The lowest available unit there is a 35 year old, 1080 sq foot condo for 750K. One other unit is 880K, the other 120+ units are all over 1 million.
You cant possibly believe that is tenable long term
Well shit
People make a lot of money in Irvine. The people who don’t aren’t going to be there long term.
It would be a rent bubble first. Pre 08, mortgages were much higher compared to rent prices in alot of areas. You can’t just save and rent like you used to because it’s all expensive now in part because wages and costs have increased across the board as opposed to 07 mortgage payments far exceeding other costs.
The American economic machine is chugging along with astonishing efficiency, led by finance and tech. These industries create a metric fuckton of jobs paying $200k and (often much) more, heavily concentrated in the largest most desirable cities.
At the same time, these exact same cities are drowning in NIMBY bullshit and are not adding housing. Some of them are building in suburbs if there is land, but most home builders went out of business in 2009. There aren’t enough builders and the ones left are still scarred from the GFC.
Finally, Boomers in these cities aren’t leaving. Where the fuck are they going to go? They’re grandfathered into absurdly low real estate taxes, with cheap (or no) mortgages. And when they die, they often leave houses to their kids.
Interest rates aren’t going to make a meaningful difference here. Buyers are insanely qualified, many paying cash.
Edit: I was truly shocked to learn 40% of houses in the US have no mortgage!
YMMV obviously, but I’m stuck at my job for at least 4 more years, and it would be insane for me to change jobs at that point due to the way my benefits and bonuses are structured.
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we’re definitely overvalued based on historical standards but this stuff is pretty location dependent
ie, selling and hoping for a downtrend won’t work in any area people are moving to regardless of national or economic trends, maybe some areas people are generally leaving tho.
also wondering if commercial office stuff like that starts slowing or going backwards due to the worker demand of working from home gradually getting more popular. (this is slow tho from the corp standpoint atm)
ah the old instead of terrorizing just the ones that won’t be coming in monday, put fear into the entire team move
Also, average household size has been falling for generations and is down from 2.54 in 2017 to 2.51 in 2021. That’s ~1.6 million additional households, which equals ~1 year of new inventory. So besides desirable metro areas and neighborhoods, infill consuming existing housing stock, much of the housing stock becoming undesirable, organic population growth, etc, you’ve got maybe 20% of new inventory being consumed by changes within the existing population.
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Wow, that’s an incredibly passive/aggressive cheesedick way to lay off half the team
I hope you left that organization as soon as it was sensible for you to do so
I love to run my business like an episode of the fucking bachelor. You will not (serious look) … Not be coming into work tomorrow congrats you’ve made it through.
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Home prices have been rising everywhere not just in places that have run out of land (Miami) or have strict zoning regulations (San Francisco)
Right but they’re rising a lot less quickly in Chicago and Kansas City (which had negative rent growth in 2021) than in Phoenix or Austin.
LOL imagine going to a Friday meeting where the boss had enough roses for half the team and handed them out one by one
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update on this story:
Well 48hrs prior to closing our cash buyers flaked and walked away. Didn’t give a decent reason, cited the “buyer’s observation/inspection” clause. We never saw the actual inspection report, but unless the other realtor was lying they said the report was insignificant. The buyers even had painters come over last weekend to get estimates to repaint some of the rooms. Back up and now we wait.
https://bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=6593154#p6593154
Which is why you get a cash deposit before you accept the offer.
My understanding is you can almost always get it back based on the home inspection (assuming you didn’t waive inspection contingency). Every home inspection will find some defects that allow you to back out of the deal and get back your earnest money.
I think I saw that even Detroit was up 15% year over year.
I had an open house for my condo this weekend, and by the deadline Monday we had 7 solid offers, almost all at above the listed price, some with escalator clauses. My realtor told them Monday night to submit their best offers, without escalators.
I accepted a no-inspection, cash offer at 15% above the listed price from an older couple in town who is selling their home and is using the proceeds to pay cash for my place. The price the realtor advised me to list it at was at least 20% more than I imagined last summer when I decided I was moving this spring.
Although my place is in reasonably good shape (with new, no-frills fridge and dishwasher) and cleaned better than it’s ever been cleaned, the kitchen, bathrooms and vinyl floors are possibly original from the 80’s, and I have not painted or replaced the carpeting since I moved in 17 years ago.
All in all, it feels like I’m just in the right place at the right time.
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Congrats!
Now, uh, good luck finding a new place.