National Basketball Association - 2023/24 Season

I was already planning on attending Naz Reid towel night next week, that should be lit at least.

Really unfortunate for the twolves who are having a great season.

Philly scored the 3rd lowest team total of the year vs the Knicks.

And won.

79-73 sixers and both them are delegated to the WNBA.

https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1766980883221762221?t=AyrzA42jjG5c9-WaOqA1eQ&s=19

Is it wrong to laugh at this?

https://twitter.com/BiasedSlightly/status/1766983751366524930?t=tT8KMQAytvFHlHkgmyDtog&s=19

Check out who has the longest winning streak in the Eastern Conference.

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The Bullets!

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https://twitter.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1767201731270599121?t=Ld27T83KnJaNEHwbyXbKgQ&s=19

Nate Silver really cursed us with charts like this for the rest of our lives. Someone who got a B+ in College Prep Algebra put this together.

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Denver at 5% title odds is crazy

More likely some Emerson College student

Why would Denver be 1/3 of okc and 1/2 MN? I don’t follow close enough.

Because they want it more and play the game the right way

His model is likely based on point differential, boston has a +11.2 PD which is historically good, Denver has a +4.3 which is why their odds are so low but they are built a lot more for the playoffs than the RS which it doesn’t seem like his model is accounting for.

Right - based on PD it’s not crazy to think Boston overwhelming favorites. They are currently 5th all-time by PD. A quick scan of the top 10 all time PD shows 9/10 made the finals (15-16 Spurs missed) and 7 of those won.

Including point differential is obviously correct, but making it the only part of the algorithm is absurd. Anything that tells you Boston has 10x the shot at the title over Denver, you can safely throw out.

Obviously having a top 5 player is at least as important. So include top player BPM or whatever - that would boost Denver (by a lot), Dallas, OKC and MIlwaukee. Seems right!

Tatum’s 11th. I’m a Celtic fan, and I think they have a chance to win, but acting like they’re a favorite when the gap between Jokic and Tatum is enormous is silly.

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just as with elections the betting markets will always be more accurate than a model some guy made in his basement because there are disastrous financial consequences if the betting markets are wrong whereas Nate Silver suffers no consequences if he is wrong.

Currently the markets have Boston at +230 and Denver at +360 and thats only bc Den has a much harder path to the finals than Boston. If they actually meet in the finals it will be pretty close to a flip.

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Oh for sure, I just think these people should be publicly embarrassed for putting something like that out. Shades of Nate Silver’s Brazil World Cup lock.

Pretty much when the output seems like bullshit, the sensible thing to do is just throw it out.

If you remove free throws the top two eligible scorers are:

  1. Luka Doncic
  2. Kyrie Irving

Followed by Giannis, steph and SGA.