But that’s how they have dealt with three pointers for a very long time. Unless in the last few minutes, they wait until dead time to review them.
I feel like they have done this for decades. I appreciate they don’t stop the flow of play to adjudicate these particular things.
In a 7 game series, I have GS blowing one game, and the Celtics blowing two. Then having them split the remaining four, not sure if it goes 5,6,7 depends on what order those games happen but I think the series will be close.
GS is a much harder team to defend than Miami so if the Celtics can hold them around the century mark, I think it will be a strong indicator in their favor. Celtics D vs Dub O is the glamour match up but the reverse may actually decide the series. Will GP2 be able to help them enough coming back?
Yeah - I think these people don’t understand how the system works. They don’t call time out to review these.
The three options are:
3, which seems to be what Meb wants, is horrific.
The real time between Strus stepping out and when the arena PA told the ruling to the crowd (8:38 when Robert Williams was fouled) was 4 minutes and 42 seconds. Obviously it takes some time for the ruling to make it’s way to the PA guy - and he’s not going to announce it while play is going on, he has to wait for a dead ball.
Game clock it was 11:06-8:38, so two and a half minutes of game time. Not as fast as you’d like to see, but I think it’s better than stopping play.
Also, for the folks saying “Why did they review that one three?” NBA said they review every single three.
I do think it’s crazy that GSW favored right now. Celtics were better regular season team and faced a far harder path to finals (even if it did take the more games to close out each series). Wouldn’t put them at 80%, but think they should be decent favorites.
Every team the warriors beat this playoffs were up 3-1 on them in the regular season. Even injuries aside I think the team learned in 2016 regular season isn’t really as important. Kerr does a ton of experimenting now, had Curry on super weird rotations the whole regular season because he wanted him to help the new guys, played the starters less than almost every other team because he plays all 12 guys etc.
I don’t really put a lot of stock into the regular season now. LeCoast showed the way and now lots of other teams do the same.
I think the Cs were the better team over the second half of the regular season, but GSW has played better in the playoffs. That’s more important and why they’re rightly favored. Eviscerating the Mavericks was eye opening. I’ve listened to podcasts where they act like it was just because the Mavs ran cold from three. Mavs shot 37% from 3 for the series! They had two cold games.
Line seems fair to me - decent favorites but not overwhelming.
Jesus, Jordan Poole shot 64% for the series. 79% True Shooting. And the Mavs play defense!
Using Sagarin’s numbers, I get 0.5585 series win prob for Cs over a million trials. That’s using the PREDICT or whatever he’s pricing the odds at. If we could instead use RECENT, which I think makes way more sense, then it would shift more toward Cs since their neutral is +3.4 compared to +1.15. Not sure how much it would change without doing conversions I’m not going to do, but I’d guess into the 60% range somewhere?
I’m not up on all the advanced metrics of basketball, so I don’t know what PREDICT or RECENT are, but in the words of Trump Jr: If it’s what you say, I love it especially (earlier) in the summer.
Celtics had better differential (by 1.8) plus I’m weighing second half a bit more. Not to ignore first half, but Celtics improvement didn’t just seems like variance but actual improved play.
Yeah its wild lots of people were picking the Mavs after they beat the suns then suddenly they weren’t good. Also I posted a video above where Warriors also put up a concious effort to give them open 3s for specific players and in specific spots they aren’t good from. Like they took away corner 3s where one player shoots 45% from 3 but gave him top of the key where that same player was like 34%
Biased source but a solid write up. I’m hoping Moody actually sees more minutes than this suggests based on his 7" 1 wingspan and ball protection.
I mostly think this comes down to the celtics collapsing more than the warriors. Those late game collapses by the Celtics are going to get punished by the warriors far more than by Heat/Bucks without middleton were able too.
Will be interested to see Celtics strategy. Will they stick with what every team has tried the last 7ish years and double/trap Curry? They have the defensive personnel to play him 1v1. So much of the warriors offense is based on all the attention Steph gets that if they can keep him under control without having to play the rest of the team 3v4 a bunch of times then who know what it’ll look like.
Hoping they do for at least one game and Steph lights em up for a big game. The slander will never end if they win and he doesn’t get that FMVP
Sagarin is basically a black box, but it’s the only known quantity I could quickly think of using point-based modeling that would let me sim out series odds that isn’t as laughably bad as N888 Sliver. Not saying you should believe these over the bookmaker I odds–I mean, you definitely shouldn’t–but I view it sort of as different opinions about the state of the world. The RECENT model weights the near past considerably more heavily which makes a lot of sense for something like NBA Playoffs, although I can’t really say if it has better predictive power than his other things. I’m more curious to see what any other such models say about this matchup though, i.e., do all of the point-based metrics think BOS is a series favorite?
From what I’ve read 538 has Wiseman as the worst player in the playoffs and getting a lot of minutes, they also had Chorrizo playing 5 minutes a game. Plus rate Klay really badly because of injures. So they got a couple of bad things in their model for the warriors that clearly aren’t true.
It’s not just that dumb RAPTOR model from Nate. All of the computers think Cs are the favorite afaict.
538 ELO: 68%
BBREF: 59%
The Ringer: 61%
Sagarin Predictor: 56%
Even if they ran the data on playoffs only, I’m pretty sure that would still be true due to Cs net rating and competition faced. So it’s sort of like who do you believe: the computers or your own lying eyes? My eyes say GSW but could easily be overweighting a cakewalk over Dallas and me thinking BOS looks more banged up / tired than they actually are.
If you gave me a fully healthy Boston team I’d take them. They’re not there though and won’t be.
What did these same models say about DAL v. GSW? I know 538 had Dallas, but I don’t know about the others. If they all had Dallas, I think I’m going to land firmly on the side of lol computers.
I, for one, am SHOCKED that Bill Simmons’ site has Boston as a sizeable favourite.
I don’t think any of these things archive their picks but looks like Sagarin had GSW as favorites on Wayback Machine. He doesn’t seem to be factoring in nearly as much home court as the actual books though despite having GSW as similar favorite in neutral points from what I can tell.
As bad as I think 538’s models have been through these playoffs, they do let you go back and see what their predictions were in past weeks. Too bad the others do not.