Why do you think it’s likely? 31-32 is a critical year for 99.999% of previous MLB players and it’s only rare freaks like freeman and betts that can perform well after that for any length of time, as well as the threat of injury. If you look up existing active MLB players over 35 there really are not that many and almost all of them are pitchers. There’s real physiological reasons why this is, for most people, they see up to 100ms+ decline in their 30’s on decision based reflexes, and performing in the MLB as a hitter you’re already pushing the limits of what the human body can do to begin with. Pitchers dont have the same problem
He made this clear way up front so I dont believe the dodgers had any real interest in signing him other than to maybe posture and try to drive the price up for their competitors
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The whole argument is pretty moot, IMO. In order to get his year 26-32 seasons, you had to pay for the rest (unless everyone colluded which wasn’t going to happen). No doubt a lot of teams didn’t want to do that. Cohen I guess figured lol who cares it’s just money.
Most perennial MVP caliber hitters play till at least their mid 30s, if not later (at least the non-catchers). It’smore true for the athletic guys.
The only recent example I can think of someone completely flaming out in their early 30s is Prince Fielder. Trout may join that, but he’s still limping along at 32. I guess you could count Josh Hamilton, but he had non-playing issues end his career.
Recent guys I’d put in this category - Pujols, Cabrera, ARod, Jeter, Cano, McCutchen, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Votto. They definitely fall off, but given their peak and contract, they usually get a chance to play for quite a while.
MLB has this weird new trick called the DH in the national league.
Prince and Ryan Howard (played to mid 30s but also wasn’t good past 30 either, edit–31 for howard being good but played to 36) were big guys. Soto’s not quite that size.
Soto is about the same as Votto though size wise apparently. Would not have guessed that.
Those guys weren’t facing pitching staffs where 90% of the relievers were throwing 100+ mph. In 10 years, you might have guys throwing 105+ mph. Hell, some are already touching 105 now.
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The guys in that list, or any such list, are gonna be consisting of hall of fame first ballots or pretty close. I guess my disagreement is while I think soto has had an exceptional few seasons and his lifetime stats are impressive, I don’t see him (yet) as HOF material to warrant being named with guys like in your list. There are so many players that have had exceptional careers til their 30’s, it’s not a thing you can really predict. I think the price is too expensive by a factor of at least 2, but what do I know
Soto is a generational talent. 2 MVP win shares by age 25 is something only a handful of players have ever matched (yes no MVP yet, but 4 top-6 finishes by age 25 if ridiculous). He’s just an elite all around hitter (elite eye, contract, and power) whose also got a fairly athletic body. The odds of him falling off a cliff unless he gets injured is pretty slim.
Obviously lol at projecting 15 years into the future, but fangraphs has him worth 1.4 WAR at the end of the contract (which they recognize is just crazy and pretty much never happens).
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Yea $765M is absurd. It’s actually $800M b/c Soto can opt out. Even Ohtani getting $700M isn’t as crazy as it looks b/c of inflation. Mahomes is the face of the NFL and the highest paid player. Soto just leapfrogged that contract by $315M LOL.
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yea I was actually at the angels game with the 105.9 and they didnt say anything but from right field bleachers the ball on the mitt sounded like a gunshot
theyre hurting their arms doing it but it’s the meta now so there will be more of it
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No one is questioning his talent but he is not good on defense. I can see him being a full time DH by the time he’s 30. The first thing my brother texted me last night was “Thank god they didn’t sign him. He’s horrible in RF.”
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oh yea and aroldis chapman throwing 105 despite his age is and no injuries is probably a portent of what is to come
To be fair, it wasn’t so much a “flame out” as it was injury. He had a herniated disc in his neck in his age 30 season. Had surgery, barely played that year. Bounced back with a very good season the next year, albeit with less power. Then had the same neck problem the following year, which forced him to retire.
I guess I dont really disagree with anything you said and mostly just disagree about the price tag for what he is and the unknowns, which may or may not even be what you’re saying, but is mostly what I was trying to say
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One of the better takes of this dodgers fan who is a baseball influencer I really like was like “this is one of the worst contracts ive ever seen” and the next post was “that said, i am very happy to see talent get paid and its not my money so fuck it” and I think that’s a great stance
I personally do not like soto, his persona, his ego, and what a defensive liability he is. los doyers arent about that shit, there was no world I could see them signing him with teo still being up in the air especially.
On the note of teoscar, the other big FA, I heard they are close to what I had initially predicted in early november. I think 2 years 50 million is perfect, I’ve heard longer contracts close to that for a little less per year but I think thats the sweet spot and i’ll get a lot of street cred if i nailed it
I don’t know why everyone is saying Soto is bad defensively, he’s a gold glove finalist every year including 2024.
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The Mets’ DH has been a black hole since it came to the NL. Being able to put Soto there for a chunk of games is a great thing for the team.
100% trolling but it’s also true, gets a lot of assists. Can’t make an error if you don’t field the ball 
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Minuses are good right?
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