Major League Baseball (Part 1)

Bobby Witt Jr.

we need a Zack Greinke 30 for 30 asap

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My husband likes his privacy though

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Turns out Bichette only has 3 career triples so maybe he’s not such a good pick. :grimacing:

Anyways the real answer for who will hit for the cycle next is obviously Ohtani.

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Today is Sabo Bowl #231 !!!1!.

Currently I have yapping-taunting rights over my dog Sabo. He can’t bark without my permission, and I can taunt that scruffy creature at my whim. However, if Sabo’s Padres beat my Red Sox this evening, that will switch to him having yapping-taunting rights over me… he could bark at his whim, and I’d have to address that wonderful doggie with respect.

Sabo will be jelly that I’ll be at the game, and he will not. Note: Sabo Bowls are not numbered consecutively.

This was the peak of my baseball fandom. 78-79 cubs. Lived and breathed every moment.

Then I came across this ten inning extravaganza where 45 runs were scored. So many good memories…

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Today is Sabo Bowl #232 !!!1!.

My Red Sox won Sabo Bowl #231 last night 6-1. No change in yapping-taunting rights occurred. Currently I have yapping-taunting rights over my dog Sabo. He can’t bark without my permission, and I can taunt that scruffy creature at my whim. However, if Sabo’s Padres beat my Red Sox this evening, that will switch to him having yapping-taunting rights over me… he could bark at his whim, and I’d have to address that wonderful doggie with respect.

Sabo will be jelly that I’ll be at the game, and he will not. Note: Sabo Bowls are not numbered consecutively.

He had two chances already this year and was kind of close both times. The automatic answer should be somebody on the Rockies but they’re so incredibly bad that I’m not sure who you would take. Brenton Doyle maybe?

Sort by triples imo

Combined with sort by triples by park factors.

Brandon Marsh @ Detroit would be optimal, but doesn’t look like he plays there this year.

Bobby Witt should have some games left @Detroit. He’s the best bet

Tigers moved the walls in a lot so will probably lower the triples count in the future

It’s Colorado by a mile. No other park is even close.

This dude has a vote.

https://twitter.com/MLBNow/status/1659287744164802560

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Trump.Gif

https://www.thestar.com/sports/sports-betting/2022/05/08/mlb-ballpark-factors-baseballs-best-and-worst-scoring-environments.html#:~:text=The%20best%20(for%20triples)%3A%20Comerica%20Park%2C%20Detroit%20Tigers

You’re wrong. You’re myopically focused on triples and ignoring that Comerica suppresses HRs significantly enough that it cancels out the fact that it makes triples a bit easier than Coors.

Some quick basic math with your man Bobby Witt Jr. would show you this.

He’s got 10 triples and 27 HRs in 195 career games so back of the envelope math (yes, I know this isn’t perfect) is he’s got a 5.1% shot at triple and 13.9% shot at a HR each game.

Adjust this based on park factors (using MLB Park Factors | Fantasy Baseball | FantasyPros)
Comerica - 11.7% triple / 10.2% HR
Coors - 9.25% triple / 17.5% HR

Combine and you get odds of triple + HR in Comerca at 1.2% and Coors at 1.6%. Yes, again not perfect as it ignores that if you hit a triple, you lose a PA you could hit a HR - but since we’re making same error for Comerica and Coors it should be roughly fine.

This also ignores the fact that you’re likely to get more PAs in a game at Coors given it’s much higher scoring that Comerica.

kc and Os

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Yeah that but also we can look at cycles in current parks to see if theory matches reality or anything sticks out. Comerica Park opened in 2000 and has surrendered 3 cycles. Coors Field opened in 1995 and has surrendered 18 cycles (!). Next closest is Fenway with 17 cycles surrendered in 111 years. After that I think it’s Wrigley with 10 and then nothing else is even remotely close.

Here’s an oddity: 4 of the last 11 cycles have come at Camden Yards, starting with Villar’s in August 2019. Also, 3 of the last 12 have come at Nationals Park. The Retrosheet linked below has all of them through 2022, so just need to add

Luis Arraez 4/11/2023 @ Citizens Bank Park
Cedric Mullins 5/12/2023 @ Orioles Park at Camden Yards

https://www.retrosheet.org/cycles_chron.htm

Here are MLB park fair territories by area. I dunno how many people realize that Coors is the largest park but it’s absolutely fucking enormous and surrenders homers at a top rate. It’s really a “one of these things is not like the other things.”

That sets up the weird fact that both the largest and smallest parks by area are the two parks yielding the largest park factors with plus factors on all hit types. So maybe someone could make a case for Boston being a good bet on a cycle, especially if they wanted to dissect this down to park factors by handedness, but it’s still no Coors Field.

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Calm down dude. The topic was what park is best for triples, not cycles. Hence the sort by triples discussion.