scolding mom voice pointing accusatory finger
No.
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Great so the Dems are gonna lose by 6.
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it’s trafalgar, if dems are up, they’re ahead
fwiw–the sharps I follow out there in the politics betting realm are either thinking that or it’s damn close
I’d be shocked if dems lost by 6 with the data I’ve seen so far
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Saw a commerical tonight with a lady who said she voted for Biden, but she’s voting for Loeffler and Perdue because we need to calm down and restore balance to the government.
gmafb
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That lady’s crazy. The Sith must be destroyed before balance is restored.
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There’s a small but enough number of people who want a divided gov’t.
dems got 2 years to get anything done with best case scenario, joe manchin having to approve anything
gl
a lot of people honestly, sincerely believe garbage like this. gridlock is a virtue to them. these people are extremely uninformed about what’s actually going on in the universe but are maxxing out dunning-kruger effects.
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Not sure if this made national news but they actually did do the infamous “signature audit” that Trump wanted in Cobb County. They sampled ~15k signatures on envelopes and concluded that 2 should have been rejected and sent back to the voter for curing. And I guess one of those two was a wife that had signed on behalf of her husband.
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It was in the main trump thread or the election thread.
Early voting increased turnout from the black community indicates about a 1.5% shift Dem vs the general, all else being equal. If turnout is lower then it will be more.
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Issue is that the data we have isnt great. The good polling firms aren’t diving into this contest because there is a ton of uncertainty. There’s no data suggesting the Lin Wood boycott is influencing anyone meaningfully. I’ve been quiet because a lot of this amounts to reading tea leaves
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Nate had something about how the 1-2 margin is more predictive than total R vs total D
I think he said something along the lines that if
D 1st 46
R 2nd 40
R 3rd 12
Would actual predict a very close runoff. Basically add back in half the missing R candidates total as some will stay home and some will actually switch and vote D I guess cause they hate the lead r?
^numbers are made up example just a general concept.
Yeah but I have no hope.
This is so incredibly important and consequential, but I just can’t turn the dial back up. Fully expect to lose in the most heartbreaking possible way.
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GA is definitely gonna rig this election right?
Ban polling, not even kidding.
Shout out to the “polls were actually pretty close” crowd, only off by 10% in Wisconsin, A+ job. Always maintain the condescending tone too, eat shit Nate
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The polls taken in my house were 100% Biden, 0% Trump. Had Biden as the winner, so looks pretty good to me.
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