No
They seem like professionals who care about their careers
1 Like
Vinyl pressing
Poly is denominated in USDC so no crypto fluctuation risk.
I suspect the lack of insider confirmation is due to a combination of relatively few people being in the loop and either being high enough in seniority to where even a 50k win isnāt worth the risk or not being savvy + unscrupulous enough to cover your tracks in order to successfully get a large sum of money down on this market in quite a short period of time.
Having said that there is clearly insider betting taking place. Walz shot up from 20 to 60+% today on very little news. Thereās also been a ~10c spread between his odds on PI vs Poly for most of the day, which means something but unclear what.
Thanks. I didnāt know that.
Has it always been that way?
This puts in to words what Iāve been feeling. Shapiro is a competant, well like Dem politician. But he absolutely has that corporate, polished, workshopped, politician vibe that matches Harrisā vibe to some degree. Walz is also a competent, well liked Dem politician. But he has a totally different vibe. Pulls in a different sector of voters on vibe alone. Creates a more vibe balanced ticket. Iām using the word vibe a lot, because this election is going to come down to vibes for so many voters.
12 Likes
Ok, Iām bored and playing the tea leaves game. Obv doesnāt mean much of anything but here we goā¦
Walz office says no public appearances scheduled for tomorrow.
Shapiro office says heās speaking at the rally at 5pm tomorrow.
Not sure theyād be publicly releasing Shapiroās appearance info if he were the VP. Especially the 5pm time, which is early.
I also think itās more likely weād be seeing leaks if it was Shapiro. Just way more reporters and presumably more staffers, etc in PA than in MN. And ofc the big bump in betting markets today for Walz.
I gave you a heart because I vibed with post.
1 Like
Pete gotta be it. feel like both other teams so unsure
Fuck me i aslo think i win the lottery every week. and then this goofy fuck from homer picks the 20 and boom 14 million to goofy fuck
1 Like
There are diminishing returns as well. If you know who the pick is, the smart play is exactly what happened, which is you come in and hit the market hard when itās low and when it gets to even money and your returns arenāt so high, you donāt get too greedy. If a single address pounds the price up to 90c it is going to be obvious what happened and this is the blockchain. You do not want people doing forensic analysis of transactions trying to figure out who owns the address.
So youāre saying donāt call all-in with J4o
So I should know by the time I wake up tomorrow? This is like Christmas, except I know Iām either getting socks, or the 6 Million Dollar Man rocketship.
1 Like
CNN reporting that Kamala hasnāt even made a decision yet
Canāt say this seems likely to me. Does seem like a good way to brush reporters off for a while. But, who knows.
āif a Harris-Walz ticket won, Walzās lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, would become the first Native American governor in American history.ā
Just one more reason to be happy with a Walz pick imo.
12 Likes
Sheās decided sheās just going to flip a coin this morning, which is why the markets are at 50/50.
2 Likes
https://x.com/bobshrum/status/1820792672358891697?s=46
While I do question the need for secrecy, I suppose I generally understand. I suppose itās desirable to be able to go from the announcement to the rollout speech with as little ability for others to shape the framing as possible so that you can do the primary framing yourself.
Obviously this assumes that the āsleep on it againā story is bogus, which is just my guess and we wonāt know anytime soon.
Iām still of the same opinion as yesterday. Just donāt think you can leave it this late, be campaigning in the home state of one of the candidates, announce itās going to be someone else and then go on stage. Would seem to be an easily avoidable blunder. Makes much more sense to do a last minute reveal if itās going to energise the crowd youāre addressing.
For that reason I canāt see past it being Shapiro.
I go to bed and Shapiro is back up to 70 cents as of 8 AM.
Drive into work and now itās Walz at 70 cents?
This market is nuts.
1 Like
Shapiro under 10 cents now.
1 Like