big Walz pump on poly from 3% to 11%, shapiro down to 67%
If she doesnāt pick Pete for VP, she should announce that he will be head of the Ministry of Truth
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It isnāt going to be Pete we are just throwing skydiver a bone even though she thinks we all hate her (we donāt).
VP is also actually a fine job for Pete who is going to be a national level Dem player for our lifetimes most likely.
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I legit hope itās Pete and that this weekend he proves himself in the face to face. Iāll be fine if itās Walz.
I assume more like the former unless youāre speaking German, in which case it I assume it would be the latter.
Walz seems like a legitimately cool dude who doesnāt just put on a political persona when in front of a camera. Definitely passes the āwould have a beer withā test which is historically the single most important political trait when running for president I think. Not that VP pick really matters unless you completely fuck it up. Walz at the top of the ticket in 8 (or god help us 4) years would be fine too.
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I like Pete not as a favor to skydiver but because he was the prototype for the āGo on Fox News, dismiss their bullshit to their facesā thing that the other VP hopefuls also started doing.
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Yea this is what I was referring to earlier if they pick him itās gonna suck, like just pick any of the others plz
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Yeah it really feels like Shapiro is a bad play specifically for the Israel stuff. Maybe itās my small circle I run in but there are a non-zero amount of leftists who are really on the fence about voting this year and any hint that Kamala is moving to the right on Israel, which would include picking Shapiro as VP, would be a deal breaker.
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Honestly I think itās messed up that something he wrote as a college student in 1993 could preclude him from being VP in 2024, but the issue is just too sticky and his words were just too strong. And while his views have moderated, heās still the anti-protestor guy.
Also I did not know (bolded):
āDespite my skepticism as a Jew and a past volunteer in the Israeli army, I strongly hope and pray that this āpeace planā will be successful. History is not made by diplomatic handshakes between two political leaders but rather when two age-old foes can have the courage to stop hating, begin healing and exist in peace and tranquility.ā
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Gonna be the Blue Danube up in here!
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Iām pretty surprised that Shapiroās price has stayed as strong as it has, though I have to remind myself that the bettors driving that market probably donāt know anything more than I do.
I donāt particularly buy that in the long term it would level any significant cost to Harrisās final result, most who are inclined to vote for her but are unhappy with the choice will come home before itās too late, but at this point it does seem pretty clear that at the very least she would be voluntarily opting into her first bad media cycle as the presumptive nominee at a point when the VP announcement is supposed to be one of your built-in bumps over the course of a campaign. Scenarios exist where you could justify taking a short-term hit for long-term gain, but Iām not particularly seeing how that would apply here.
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I would bet that most of them know less.
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I agreeā¦people can change, but now is not the time to test the electorateās levels of forgiveness.
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a lot of Walz-mentum
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This. Bidenās debate performance didnāt sink his chances of reelection. They were sunk on 10/7. There are a large amount of Democratic voters who strongly support Israel and a large amount of Democratic voters who strongly support Palestine. Itās not fair considering how far out of his hands it was but there was just no way to keep everyone happy. Bidenās debate was just confirmation that he had lost his ability to campaign and couldnāt make up the ground he lost. One of Kamalaās greatest assets is a blank slate on the conflict. She needs to do everything she can to keep it clean through the election.
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Yeah Iām off Shapiro for distraction alone
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Which feels especially backwards since Iām participating in the cycle by thinking itās likely Shapiro mostly because theyāre holding onto such a high price on him (even though it has dipped a bit).
Thing is that this price pumped to this level on the basis of Tuesdayās rally being in Philly, which means that it was all pumped to that level on the basis that many people became convinced that it was a decided matter at the point of that announcement, something Iām really unconvinced on. And once you take that away, Iām really not sure where the strength is.
It made total sense to at least kick the tires on him as part of this process - it would have been political malpractice not to, really - but I donāt get why she would stay married to the idea even if it was her initial preference.
If forced to make an even-money bet of Shapiro vs. the field, Iād almost certainly have to bet the field based on available info.