Well it’s reverted to break even-ish after 2 months of starting this on July 1st, which is longer than even I can stand, so I’m leaving it here to focus on a bot I’ve developed that places bets on Betfair when the prices look right.
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Not sure whether you’re asking about the selections or the staking plan (flat stakes)?
Selections are mostly from ratings that have developed over a long period, but heavily filtered because they’re very imperfect, the biggest problem being that most of the value found is at odds that are higher than you want, giving a strike rate that’s so low you get ridiculously long losing runs.
There are different ways to stake but the thing to remember is that if your selections lose in the long term at level stakes they’ll lose with any other staking plan you choose ie staking plans can be more profitable than level stakes or less profitable, but they can’t turn a losing system into a winning system in the long term (this has been proved mathematically now). The problem this year wasn’t staking - it was the variance of a low strike rate system. I’m pretty sure it would jave come good in the end but how long that would have taken is anyone’s guess, and in the meantime I’ve finally got a workable Betfair system that removes my dependence on bookies and not getting accounts closed etc and more importantly it’s a high strike rate system so no more crazy variance lasting months.
Jul 2018 - Jun 2019
Jul 2019 - Sep 2019
Was break even for first 115 bets though. That’s 3 weeks.
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It was 5 points down before recovering.
Interesting interview with “Enemy Number 1”, Patrick Veitch (for those who don’t know, he made about £10M gambling on horses in a few years by opposing the markets).
The segment starting around 15mins backs up what I’ve been saying about “first or fourth” horses: