Ok, here we go.
I’ve been doing this for a number of years, generally successfully, albeit with a couple of dips.
Last year (starting July 1st) went fairly well: 325 winners from 1671 bets with a yield of 16%. I’ve weeded out a couple of the not so good ideas, so hopefully this year will be better.
Usual disclaimer: YMMV/past results are no guarantee of future results/don’t follow with money you’re not prepared to lose etc etc.Better still, don’t follow it with real money at all.
I’ll kick this off from tomorrow.
2 Likes
Kewl. In. Will you be explaining your picks a little?
Have been limited to pennies by most UK bookies sadly.
Jal,
Do you have insider info or just a really good algorithm/database?
16% is very good. What’s the general strategy? Most winning horse racing punters I know tend to focus on big meetings / in-form stables / specific race conditions.
There were no picks today and didn’t find how to post this from my moble lol
miliboo: I know very little about horse racing and don’t enjoy it as a sport but there are huge amounts of free historic data available that with perserverance make it possible to find edge that persist long enough to profit from.
So yeah, it’s algorithm/data based plus years at the beginning of getting it wrong.
I was a little disappointed by a 16% edge. Previous systems I’ve had (that no longer work) showed an edge of 20-30%, but with the availability of data comes other people finding similar edges, unfortunately.
On the flip side though, there are so many selections that even a 16% edge enables the bank to be multiplied after a year.
One thing I find happening is more involvement in unglamorous dreary claimers at Hexham than in big meetings and big races, because form often goes out of the window when trainers prepare their horses with particular races/festivals in mind.
The real drawback for me is the low strike rate. Previous systems I’ve had had 25%+ strike rates, corresponding to a maximum expected drawdown of ~33 bets per 600 bets, whereas a 20% strike rate will give a 42 bet downswing over the same period, which believe me is horrible (though not nearly as horrible as poker, which is probably why I’m able to deal with it).
When you expect these long coolers it’s so important to get off to a good start so you’re playing with bookies’ money not your own, which is why I start the year in July, it being the most profitable month. Let’s hope it continues into August.
All bets placed online at UK bookies offering BOG (Bet Odds Guaranteed); these won’t be profitable at Betfair SP.
This of course means I can expect account closure/limiting as milliboo has experienced., and is the reason for starting afresh last year, after we moved house ;). I wish I could get on at Pinnacle but they’re still excluding UK bettors. And so it goes, and so it goes.
Hi Jalfrazi… Do you also do match betting as that sounds right up your street?
I do that with a new set of accounts for the initial sign up bonuses but can’t be arsed with it on a continual basis. How about you?
Today’s:
| Perth |
19:25 |
El Terremoto |
3.25 |
| Perth |
19:25 |
Old Salt |
5.32 |
| Worcester |
18:05 |
Capital Force |
3.96 |
| Worcester |
20:20 |
Noah And The Ark |
3.15 |
| Beverley |
15:50 |
Qaaraat |
21.00 |
| Beverley |
16:55 |
Picketts Charge |
13.00 |
| Beverley |
16:20 |
Kings Pavilion |
13.00 |
| Yarmouth |
16:30 |
Sharp Operator |
5.00 |
| Worcester |
18:40 |
Present Chief |
4.50 |
(I have nfi why the first is showing in bold).
All at online bookies with BOG and in some cases Odds Boost applied (Hill’s, Ladbrokes).
No… I just recently heard about it, and got it confused with other betting when I heard a while ago… So probably missed out on some cash lol… Tbh it’s not my thing.
Got the first day curse out of the way thank god.
| Yesterday |
|
|
|
|
| Perth |
19:25 |
El Terremoto |
3.25 |
-1 |
| Perth |
19:25 |
Old Salt |
5.32 |
-1 |
| Worcester |
18:05 |
Capital Force |
3.96 |
-1 |
| Worcester |
20:20 |
Noah And The Ark |
3.15 |
+3.75 |
| Beverley |
15:50 |
Qaaraat |
21.00 |
-1 |
| Beverley |
16:55 |
Picketts Charge |
13.00 |
-1 |
| Beverley |
16:20 |
Kings Pavilion |
13.00 |
+8.4 * |
| Yarmouth |
16:30 |
Sharp Operator |
5.00 |
-1 |
| Worcester |
18:40 |
Present Chief |
4.50 |
-1 |
- Paid me +8.4 unfortunately though you might have got +13.
Thanks Marty.
I didn’t know that bricks n mortar bookies do BOG - must investigate.
So am I right in saying you are getting odds better than betfair to the extent that following your tips on betfair wouldn’t be profitable? Couldn’t you just arbitrage for free money then?
The selections are profitable at Betfair SP, but only marginally so. There are a few selections I won’t post here because they’re outsiders that I do take at Betfair SP, and I’ve found in the past that liquidity at BSP is quite limited which means that others also placing BSP bets will severely affect the price I’m getting (not that I expect or even want anyone to follow these with their hard-earned, but still…).
Anyway, I digress. Even if BSP was breakeven with these I’d still be fairy dead set against trading them because it usually means sacrificing some value (often quite a lot) with the offset bet (a lay in this case) in order to “green up”. In fact I think sports traders throw away vast amounts of value, possibly through not analysing which of their bets contains the value and therefore not discarding the half that doesn’t.
It’s an interesting topic with strong parallels with poker, and thanks for raising it.
WTF is correct. 
I’ll chase it up with Hills but I suspect they’ll claim that taking a bet boost negates BOG. We’ll see…
lol you have some great (bad) stories. All the bookies are as bad as each other really, with Bet365 probably being the best of a bad lot.
Kings Pavilion had an R4 deduction so I posted the unadjusted SP by mistake.