Typical. I forgot to post the picks today because of domestic stuff and had a couple of decent winners (and 8 losers):
+5 today
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Stinking cold this morning and I forgot to post again.
-2 today
-3 today (1 x NR).
The curious case of what happened to Thahab Ifraj pre-off gives a little insight into the sort of shenanigans that beset racing, particularly after the advent of Betfair which allows punters to lay horses.
Available at 6 early prices, he drifted to 11 for no apparent reason and finished last, no doubt pleasing “connections” greatly.
Sigh.
In general horse racing is in the doldrums financially and many owners/yards have trouble making ends meet because the costs are great compared to prize money. Have a look at the size of fields now in lower grade races compared with 20 years ago.
It would be tempting for an owner to recoup some of the costs by instructing a jockey not to try too hard while “connections” lay the horse at the exchanges.
A more recent finesse of this is the practice of “1st or 4th”, whereby an owner will back his horse to win (which is good because his interests align with the punters’) but also lays it in the place market at betfair (which isn’t good and is against racing laws), and the jockey is instructed to win if he can otherwise drop out of the places. You might have noticed in some races the strange effect of an occasional horse doing well until the final furlong then appearing to go almost into reverse.
I’ve spent a lot of time unsuccessfully trying to make a system based on this. It’s possible to see certain combinations of owner/trainer/jockey that have more than their fair share of horses that don’t finish 2nd or 3rd, but actually building a system and staking plan to exploit it is another matter.
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-3 today, with the 14/1 shot finishing second.