Iowa Caucus Predictions... SEASON Thread

Supposedly every precinct was supposed to record that info

Pete just came out in favor of M4A.

Or, as he calls it, NIXONCARE.

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I don’t know, but I have a feeling he ends up in a Democratic administration for most nominees (but maybe not Bernie) if the Dems win the White House. He’s a young talent, they’ll want to keep him in the mix for the future.

That’s good. May take a long time but they should be able to get something reasonably accurate then, I think.

Look, results! how hard is this?

https://twitter.com/naletho/status/1224566503204360193

https://twitter.com/bhalle87

entire twitter feed of results

So no more tonight? Really thrilled to have wasted the last 4.5 hours and fucked myself for work tomorrow. Gjge’s all around.

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Scooping 100% of the black vote in Iowa has to bid well for his SC chances.

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https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1224564271578783744

Someone on twitter is tallying up the results since the DNC is icompetant

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Well, assuming the campaigns had their precinct captains sending in the results directly to the campaigns to cross check with the final official numbers and look for inconsistencies, the campaigns all have a pretty good idea of how many delegates were won in each district by each candidate. So they all probably know within a reasonable margin of error…

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i don’t have the foggiest about what the process entails, I was considering some procedural error or other failing that compromises the 2nd instance of data collection. Zero clue, tho, and totally ignorant of how it works.

Y’all gotta stop getting so mad at Victor and just appreciate the show

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so in this precinct, you needed 5 ppl to be viable in the first round, which is based on how many people are caucusing total. After realignment, it ended with Pete 12, Joe and Liz 6, and Amy 5. Then they divvy up the delegates according to the math you see there, rounding up or down when necessary.

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Lol msnbc saying they held a conference call with campaigns, and it got heated and the state democratic committee hung up on the campaigns. LOL IOWA FOREVER

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Iowa caucus? more like Iowa circus.

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This is hilarious everyone gets to pretend they won

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You know, perhaps just voting would be a good idea.

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This isn’t Arizona, bro, these people have been setting up shop in America since my parents’ generation. No on wants to kick them out. Why would you even do that. White people have been killing themselves off with opioids and also jobs have been disappearing due to globalization and the result is that the Rust Belt is full of abandoned neighborhoods. For real, you can drive for several blocks in the Rust Belt and it’s all abandoned properties. Shit is like a war zone.

People from shithole countries are keeping America’s hearland alive right now. LOL at deporting these people, they are the only ones keeping the lights on:

Rockford has manufacturing and aerospace jobs, and help-wanted fliers are taped inside the windows of storefronts. It’s a short drive from Milwaukee, Madison and Chicago. Housing is affordable. There are Buddhist temples and a mosque, and tight-knit immigrant communities that praise Rockford to friends and families overseas who are looking to settle in America.

For these reasons, among others, the city’s immigrant population grew by 64 percent from 2000 to 2015, according to U.S. Census data, helping to mitigate a net population loss of about 10,000 people between 2010 and 2016.

Rockford is emblematic of a larger trend that’s happening at a time when the country is torn over the issue of immigration. In more than 40 Midwestern cities, immigrants are a lifeline, bucking the pattern of population loss and revitalizing an aging workforce. In the last 15 years, immigrants accounted for 37 percent of the growth of Midwestern metropolitan areas — defined as a city and its surrounding suburbs. That’s a significant contribution for a region that has experienced the slowest growth in the nation.

The entire history of the Midwest is various successions of dirt-poor immigrants from shithole countries like Ireland, Poland, Germany, Norway, etc. coming over and setting up shop. Right now it’s people from Ethiopea, Lebanon, Nepal, Vietnam, Somalia, etc. I see these people in Iowa and it’s like, that’s where my great-grandparents were at back in the day.

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I think the theory that is floating around makes sense. In years past, even if your candidate was viable after the first round you could jump to someone else. Now if your candidate stays viable you can’t jump. So if some precincts messed up and let people jump, it can throw off the results significantly… Let’s say someone like Klobuchar was one caucuser short of viability, so someone jumped from Warren to Klobuchar to get her a delegate… But they weren’t allowed to do so, because Warren was already over 15% and locked in. Well, now the problem is that it’s not like they can just subtract that 1 and swing it back to Warren and zero out Klobuchar… Those other people who stuck with Klobs would have moved to someone else, and they don’t know who. So they have to figure out what to do.

Thus it’s a huge mess. However, overall, the leading campaigns probably have a pretty good idea how they did +/- a few delegates here or there where that may have happened.

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like they wanted to do ranked choice, but they thought ranked choice ballots weren’t fun and engaging enough for the voters, so a 40-year-old board game enthusiast came up with this thing

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