Well I feel the same way and have been holding UPRO all the way down since I bought in at around 70. Sounds like the market is going to be stuck in limbo forever.
When the Great Depression happened about 27% of Americans were farmers. It might not have been as efficient, and crop failures led to shortages, but the system was resilient as hell. With 1.3% of people working on farms and everything dependent on everything else - if something goes wrong, it can be very bad.
My 96yo step-f-in-law grew up on a farm in Arkansas during the depression and I’ve talked to him about it at length. They almost never saw money - literally it was rare to use money in any way for years. Still, food and essentials moved around because they didn’t have far to go and people knew who they were trading with.
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I buy chemicals and metals for our plant and haven’t had any problems with freight yet, we get shipments from all over the country. The only issue I’ve run into is our precious metal supplier ran out if silver. I tried to buy when the market tanked last week and they backordered product for a few weeks
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I manage the movement of research drugs globally for a smallish company. So far, we haven’t had too much trouble, but the cost of courier services has increased in the past couple of weeks. And we are seeing slightly longer than normal delays through customs in some areas.
Our bigger problems will likely be further up the supply chain in API and DP manufacturing, unless China gets going again, but especially if India remains closed for long. Those problems take longer to manifest, but could be really problematic for much of the pharmaceutical industry.
We have 30 trucks coming into our mill every day and haven’t had any problems with freight so far.
From my buddy who is always betting against the market.
Two more days like today I’ll be above my high water mark in Feb. I am looking at the amount right now and have a sinking feeling it’s the highest I’ll see for years.
I put like a 3rd of my portofolio in Quest Diagnostics (DGX +16% today) - because it seemed to be lagging the market. I worked there and feel it’s a good company. They’re doing C19 tests but the market must have been pissed at them over something. They were the best performing stock in 2001 so I’ve always held them as kind of a hedge. 12 P/E and their price seemed pretty low.
OTOH I feel like we could be in for a short term euphoria until it gets close to April 12th and people realize we’re still a year and a half away from actually going back to normal.
Fuck that, we need goods moving.
Grandfather was a truck driver in WW2. (too old to go overseas) It was considered part of the war effort.
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I wish someone had mentioned this earlier in the thread when I was calling dow 18000
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You’re moving food, people need to eat to survive, don’t feel bad about that.
Broken record here, but guys, seriously stop trying to market time. Some of the literal smartest people in the world have been trying to do this, armed with way more information than you, for a very long time, and almost all have failed. Admitting powerlessness sucks but in this case it’s super liberating. In what other walk of life do you make money for working less?
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Any idea what happened at the end of the day?
I know you’re probably talking more about short term ETFs. I agree daily market timing is a random walk for us normal people.
But on my “buy and hold except black swan” strategy so far I’m 3 for 3. I’m not going to stop until it stops working. Unless I sell here and snooker myself somehow, I’m up at least 20% from where I would be with buy and hold.
Let’s say there’s a 10% chance I’m right and a 90% chance I’m just a monkey throwing darts. If I’m just a money throwing darts - isn’t my opportunity cost just the sklansky bux of the average market gain for those days I was out of the market? (and trading costs which are zero for me I think)
I think even the 10% chance I’m right and there was a way for an informed person to see C19 coming before the general market, I think that’s still worth missing out on the sklansky bux for a few weeks or months. Obviously this plan is higher variance than just buy and hold and forget it. I accept that.
Now you can say I’m worse than the market and will likely lose more than just the average market gain for the days I’m out. But if that was really possible couldn’t hedge funds just hire an idiot and fade their every move?
Echo your sentiments right meow… but should still dodge the obvious once in a decade black swan that Unstuck identifies.
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The one thing that annoys me is if I’d pulled the trigger on sell and buy back in one day earlier each time - I’d be up another 20%. And I was strongly thinking about it both times. Me and the market are sympatico apparently.
What about if we are bored and just like gambling even if we know it is stupid?
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Riverman,
I agree. But taking a 2% of assets extreme short position, (while keeping 90% long and 5% cash), with an obvious massive disruption coming, isn’t market timing. It’s probably more of a hedge.
You call it work, I think of it as entertainment. Much like sports betting.
You could say that almost all poker players have failed too. Even some of the very smartest people, for many of the same reasons
If I was smart I would start hedging. I really don’t need a ton more I just can’t handle going down by half. But I am dumb.
I did too! I’ll always appreciate them for hiring me full time in 2008 when shit was hitting the fan everywhere else. GL on the stonks.